Analyst sees 'problem child' F-35A as 'likely bill-payer'

A defense budget analyst contends that the Air Force will likely use its F-35A Joint Strike Fighter program as a "bill-payer" in the fiscal year 2017 budget because of its increasing commitment to the KC-46 aerial refueling tanker and Long-Range Strike Bomber.

Kate Blakeley, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments who used to work for the Congressional Research Service, said the Air Force's potential cuts to F-35A spending will likely be met with little resistance from Congress because the program is increasingly seen as "kind of a problem child."

"You've already had a flattening of the acquisition profile, you've already had a lot of skepticism . . . in Congress about its capabilities, about the timeline, about the software, about the problems with the helmet," she said during a presentation today.

"So you won't have quite as much resistance in Congress to cutting it as something like the A-10, where you can make a much more clear-cut narrative about its operational capabilities and its operational utility, not least because it's actually flying," she continued. "Basically, I think the Air Force loves the LRS-B a little more than they love the F-35. They like the F-35, but they love the LRS-B right now."

Blakeley also said Congress could be headed toward another fiscal showdown over defense spending, especially the overseas contingency operations account.

"For fiscal year 2017, the overall OCO level will be closely watched and is likely to become a piece of political ammunition," she said. "It will be a leading indicator of how the politics of this year's budget are going to go."

Blakeley pointed to recent statements from House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry (R-TX), who has indicated he will attempt to put additional money in the Pentagon's OCO account if the Obama administration's Feb. 9 request is below $58.8 billion. LINk: 175466

"The GOP will argue that $58.8 billion was a floor, but I think the Obama administration sees it as a ceiling," Blakeley said.