Calming Down Insurgencies

The RAND Corp. just released a pair of monographs examining how countries that confront insurgencies transition from a violent to a more stable situation. The first one "examines such transitions as: the military-to-civilian transfer of security and economic operations; disarmament, demobilization and reintegration of fighting forces; the building of police and justice functions in a post-conflict environment; and the contribution of international partners."

The second monograph "examines six case studies of insurgencies from around the world to identify the key factors necessary for a successful transition." Specifically:

In some of the cases, such as Iraq's Anbar province and Afghanistan, the United States was (or still is) directly involved in combat operations; in the Philippines and Colombia, it played a supporting role; in others, there was little U.S. involvement of any consequence. The authors review the causes of each insurgency and the key players involved and examine what the government did right -- or wrong -- to bring the insurgency to an end and to transition to stability. They note that in each case, there was a need to understand the participants in the insurgency and the grievances and needs of the local population; to balance security needs with reforms in other areas; and to plan for the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration of militias and government and insurgent forces.

Inside the Pentagon reported last month that many Defense Department officials oppose the Defense Science Board's recent call for a new senior post to oversee intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance for counterinsurgency operations. Specifically:

Defense officials critical of the idea argue that a new ISR post "isn't the way to go in view of a constrained budget," the source said.

The DSB's report, released in May, outlined ways DOD intelligence could better support counterinsurgency operations. The panel urged the director of national intelligence to assume responsibility for COIN ISR and to create a related national intelligence manager position (ITP, May 20, p1).

Although the Defense Intelligence Agency has since penned a two-page memo to Pentagon procurement chief Ashton Carter endorsing the panel's findings, roughly 15 to 20 DOD agencies are also "discussing and considering and making their points of view known," the source said.

Two of those agencies are still in the process of being briefed by DOD officials on the national intelligence manager (NIM) recommendation, the source said. All briefings are expected to wrap up by the end of the fall, although they were initially slated to finish by early August, the source said.

After that, it will be up to Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence Michael Vickers, the source said. He will receive all the recommendations from various agencies and present the findings to the director of national intelligence.