Chopper Forecast

The research firm Forecast International predicts that 1,877 light military helicopters will be built between by the end of the decade, with a value of $24 billion "in constant 2011 U.S. dollars."

According to a Forecast International statement issued this morning, "light military rotorcraft production will increase through 2012, representing a continuation of the market's growth track of recent years." Further:

After 2012, however, Forecast International expects that yearly production in the segment will enter a period of gradual, though erratic, decline through the 2018/2019 timeframe.  The company's projections indicate that production will total 193 units in 2011 and 215 units in 2012, decline to 186 units in 2013, increase to 204 units by 2015, and then decline to just over 165 units in each of 2018 and 2019.  Production in 2020 is projected at 185 units.

"Current military helicopter acquisitions are running their course, and very few major procurements of light military helicopters have emerged that could help grow, or even maintain, production levels in the market," said Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski.

The market momentum of recent years will not be sustained.  The U.S. accounts for a large portion of demand in the market, and the present modernization cycle in U.S. military rotorcraft procurement is nearing an end.  Meanwhile, defense spending is under intense pressure in the U.S. and many other countries that have contributed to much of the recent demand in the market.

The new Forecast International study includes projections of manufacturer market shares.  These indicate that Eurocopter will be the leading manufacturer of light military rotorcraft during the 2011-2020 time period.  AgustaWestland is projected to be second in unit production during this timeframe, followed by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) and Bell Helicopter.  Each of these companies has a robust presence in the market but, as detailed in the study, pursue widely diverging strategies to protect and enhance their market share.

InsideDefense.com reports this morning that the Air Force has chosen to delay the release of a draft request for proposals for its Common Vertical Lift Support Platform, the first of two planned helicopter recapitalization efforts:

Industry representatives last week told reporters they were expecting the release of the draft RFP in the near future, but the service announced on Sept. 23 that the draft RFP had been temporarily delayed.

"The Air Force is currently undergoing programmatic and budgetary deliberations resulting from the Budget Control Act and establishment of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction," the posting states. "In recognition of industry's time and monetary investment required to provide input on the draft RFP, the Air Force is temporarily delaying its release."

The Budget Control Act, which Congress passed this summer to avoid a default on the national debt, set spending caps for fiscal years 2012 and 2013 that could affect many Defense Department programs.

The service has not announced a new release date for the draft RFP.