EELV Redux

Inside the Air Force's top story this morning reports that the new baseline for the service's Evolved Expanded Launch Vehicle program has more than doubled from its original 2004 cost estimate, jumping to $69.6 billion as part of the process to re-certify EELV under Nunn-McCurdy statutes -- and the Defense Department says costs for the program could continue to rise. Further:

In a Nunn-McCurdy certification document obtained Aug. 13 by Inside the Air Force, DOD's acquisition chief Frank Kendall writes that the baseline increase is driven largely by rising unit costs, fewer launches and idle resources.

"The critical breaches of unit cost growth thresholds that triggered the review were the result of a reduction in the total number of launches due to unstable demand for launch services, turbulence in the international civil-commercial launch market and its associated supply base, and a business relationship with the supplier that has not been conducive to controlling costs," Kendall states.

Congress in April was notified of a Nunn-McCurdy breach on the EELV program. A March 31 Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) estimated the program's cost at about $35 billion and cited a 58 percent increase in procurement unit costs over both the 2004 and 2007 baselines. But DOD was required to report the cost breach not because of the jump in unit costs, but because the program had been re-designated as a major defense acquisition program. These programs demand reports to congress on cost, schedule and performance as well as periodic SARs.

DOD's Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation office established the new $69.6 billion baseline after reviewing the program and developing its own estimate of research, development, test and evaluation (RTD&E) and procurement costs. These estimates are based on the Air Force's own EELV programmatic forecast completed June 13, 2012 and an EELV Sustainment Plan the Secretary of the Air Force sent to Congress July 1, 2011. CAPE's report includes RDT&E funding for new EELV enhancements, including Global Positioning System dual launch capability, EELV standard payload adapter and RL-10C development and line start as well as other unspecified developments. . . .

View the Nunn-McCurdy certification document.

. . . And check out Inside the Air Force's recent EELV coverage:

Air Force To Leverage Commercial Sales For EELV Starting In FY-13 (July 27)

Air Force To Submit New EELV Baseline To Congress By End Of October (July 20)

Air Force May Settle EELV Legal Spat Over $385M Via Dispute Resolution (July 20)

Change In EELV Program Classification Triggers Nunn-McCurdy Breach (June 8)

Air Force Delays Decision On Number Of EELV Booster Cores To Buy (June 1)

House Armed Services Committee Wants EELV Space Launch Study (May 10)

Panel Pushes Back On ORS Closure, Suggests Limit On EELV Spending (April 27)

USAF Study On EELV Engine Alternatives Set To Begin Soon (April 20)