Election Eve

On the day before national elections take place in Afghanistan, country experts emphasized the uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's results as well as their inability to predict what those results -- whatever they may be -- will mean for Afghanistan's security.

J. Alexander Thier, senior rule of law adviser at the United States Institute for Peace, said today that risk and instability would likely follow the election due to the high perception of fraud and corruption. These perceptions have been exacerbated by the recent controversial election in Iran, he said, adding that many Afghans also believe that the United States will have a hand in who wins.

Thier spoke, along with retired Lt. Gen. David Barno, at the Center for National Policy.

Both men agreed that all outcomes would invariably be accompanied by a level of risk and turbulence in the country.

"I expect tomorrow is going to be a violent day in Afghanistan," said Barno.

The speakers also said it would take time for the security situation to improve and for the Obama administration's multipronged strategy to produce results.

By next summer, Barno said all arrows currently pointing down would have bottomed out and start to turn upward, particularly the security indicators. But, he predicted a lot of violence between now and then.

Paul McHale, former assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and the discussion's moderator, said he believed it would take longer -- three to five years -- for real improvement to show. McHale said he agrees with David Kilcullen's recent assessment of two years of fighting left, followed by three years of transitioning operations to the Afghan security forces.