Questionable Threat

Ever since North Korea tested the two-stage Taepo Dong 2 ballistic missile in 1996, the country has been held up by the Bush and Obama administrations as a significant potential threat to the United States. The missile is often cited by ballistic missile defense proponents as one of the reasons the United States needs to invest in a robust BMD program

But a recent study committee formed by the National Academy of Sciences isn't buying the threat. "While some view the Taepo Dong 2 as a potential threat to the United States, the committee thinks this is unlikely," the committee's report states. The report, issued last Tuesday, examines the investment the United States is making in missile defense programs.

When the Obama administration issued its 2010 Ballistic Missile Defense Review, it pointed to the TD-2 as a serious threat to the U.S. mainland. "Although the test launches of the TD-2 in 2006 and 2009 were deemed unsuccessful, we must assume that sooner or later North Korea will have a successful test of its TD-2 and, if there are no major changes in its national security strategy in the next decade, it will be able to mate a nuclear warhead to a proven delivery system," the review stated.

The Heritage Foundation, which is a big proponent of missile defense, notes in a recent policy briefing for 2012 election candidates that the TD-2 "has the capability to deliver a nuclear warhead to Hawaii. A third stage could boost the weapon's range to include the continental United States. The best way to contain the threat from North Korea is through missile defense."

During a Sept. 11 telephone conference call with reporters, David Montague, one of the NAS committee's two co-chairs, succinctly summed up the committee's opinion of the TD-2: "It's ugly."

Montague added that the TD-2 is incapable of carrying a large enough payload to be a significant threat.

"It's a baby satellite launcher and not a very good one at that. If you look at the way it has to be erected prior to launch, it is a sitting duck for 'first intelligence' and what I call pre-launch defense," he said.

The TD-2 is a liquid-fueled missile and has to be fueled as it sits on the launch pad prior to liftoff.

The NAS committee thinks another North Korean missile program should draw greater scrutiny than the TD-2.

"A more immediate threat is a new 3,200[-kilometer intermediate ballistic missile] North Korea is developing that can threaten Japan, Guam, Okinawa -- all staging areas for a U.S. response to aggressive behavior by North Korea," the report states.