The Insider

Looking for the data about the factions involved in the Angolan civil war of 1975 to 1988? The Center for Army Analysis can probably help out. As we learned recently, the organization has built a database with detailed descriptions of 100-some irregular conflicts since World War II, designed to help defense officials understand the nature of this type of warfare.

Researchers, using data from open sources, have grouped the information about these wars in nine categories: Basic country data, conflict characteristics, force fighting patterns, force availability and force peaks, annualized data, conflict outcomes, incident and casualty totals, narratives and chronology, and list of factions.

Of course, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the Israel-Hezbollah conflict of 2006, are included in the database.

"The U.S. forces were strong enough to rout the Iraqi army but could not occupy all of the territory they had liberated," reads the narrative of the Iraq war. "Armed groups quickly formed and attacked the occupiers. The U.S. leadership wrote off the early insurgents as 'dead-enders,'" it adds.

The text credits the George W. Bush administration's 2007 troop "surge" with helping to reduce violence. It also acknowledges that “aggressive negotiations" with tribal leaders and local factions helped pacify Sunni areas.

As of May 2008, when the last change was apparently made to the Iraq war data records, the conflict's outcome is listed with “No definitive winner.”

(The same applies to the Afghanistan war.)

The database identifies Hezbollah the "binary winner" of the 2006 Lebanon War, although whoever made the entry acknowledges this assumption as "arguable."

"Unlike the negotiated end of the previous major Israeli incursion in Lebanon, which resulted in Fatah evacuating Lebanon, Hezbollah is still intact and operational in Lebanon, holds seats in the Lebanese legislature and is still a viable threat to Israel. Further, Hezbollah was able to put up a credible defense against the Israeli attack and were never really threatened with destruction, as was Fatah, so achieved something of a propaganda victory as well, the Hezbollah 'David' versus the Israeli 'Goliath'. On the other hand, Israel agreed to withdraw without achieving its end."

International opinion played a big role in the conflict, according to the narrative in the database.

"The large number of civilian casualties (30% children), the use of cluster bombs and the targeting of the civilian infrastructure quickly drew international condemnation against Israel," it reads. "Although some Hezbollah attacks resulted in civilian casualties, the percent of civilian deaths caused by Hezbollah was much lower than Israel’s, drawing less criticism from abroad."

The Missile Defense Agency's Airborne Laser program this week fired the megawatt-class, Chemical Oxygen Iodine Laser (COIL) in flight for the first time, except for one little detail: The laser beam never left the Boeing 747.

That was on purpose, as lead contractor Boeing said in a statement:

During the test, the modified Boeing 747-400F aircraft took off from Edwards Air Force Base and fired its high-energy laser while flying over the California High Desert. The laser was fired into an onboard calorimeter, which captured the beam and measured its power.

"This was a significant test of the Airborne Laser's capabilities, demonstrating that the system has truly moved from the drawing board to reality," said Greg Hyslop, vice president and general manager of Boeing Missile Defense Systems. "We have seen that the Airborne Laser's high-energy laser is functioning aboard the aircraft and that ABL is ready for more flight tests to further validate its viability as a mobile missile defense system."

Michael Rinn, Boeing vice president and ABL program director, said, "This test shows that ABL is on track to shoot down a boosting ballistic missile later this year. After years of development, the team is excited to be so close to delivering this transformational and unique directed-energy weapon system. We think ABL will be a game-changer for weapon systems the same way stealth technology transformed aerial combat."

Before the upcoming missile shoot-down demonstration, ABL's high-energy laser will undergo a series of additional flight tests, building toward lethal capabilities. It will advance from being fired into the onboard calorimeter to being sent through the beam control/fire control system, exiting the aircraft through a nose-mounted turret. This will represent a major achievement in directed-energy technology because it will be the first time a megawatt-class laser has been coupled with precise pointing and atmospheric correction in an airborne environment. The team will follow this milestone with the firing of the high-energy laser against a variety of increasingly challenging targets, culminating with an airborne intercept test against a ballistic missile in the boost phase of flight.

The ABL aircraft is a modified Boeing 747-400F whose back half holds the high-energy laser. The front section of the aircraft contains the beam control/fire control system, developed by Lockheed Martin, and the battle management system, provided by Boeing. Northrop Grumman developed and built the COIL.

According to a Northrop statement:

Maintaining the precise alignment of optical components within the laser while in flight ranks among the program's notable accomplishments, according to Steve Hixson, vice president of Advanced Concepts - Space and Directed Energy Systems for Northrop Grumman's Aerospace Systems sector.

"ABL has to keep all of the powerful laser's optical components perfectly positioned as the aircraft vibrates and flexes during flight," Hixson said. "Since we were unable to fly the kind of large concrete pads used to hold a ground-based laser's optics in place, we had to isolate the COIL's optics from the structure but also maintain alignment. So the team developed an optical bench isolation system that isolates disturbances caused by normal aircraft operations while maintaining alignment to the gain medium, or the source of a laser's optical power. It's like an automobile's 'smart suspension' that keeps the car riding smoothly at the same level over a bumpy road."

The ABL is scheduled to attempt an intercept of a boosting ballistic missile sometime this fall, after years of delay and billions of dollars spent on the effort. In June, House and Senate authorizers approved Defense Secretary Robert Gates' $1.2 billion cut to MDA's fiscal year 2010 budget request, which included the cancellation of the second planned ABL aircraft.

Instead, Gates directed MDA to look at technologies beyond intercepting in the boost-phase and into the "ascent" phase of a ballistic missile's flight.

Inside Missile Defense reported in June that MDA would give the ABL program three chances to intercept a boosting target missile before deciding whether to cancel the effort entirely:

"What we’ve set up in our budget is, we're giving it a chance for three strikes," Army Lt. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly said at a conference sponsored by the National Defense University. "It's going to fly in September/October, that time frame, and if it is not successful there, we’re going to fly it again in the middle of the ((fiscal)) year, and if it's not successful, we’ll fly it again next spring, and after that third one, I am committed to come back to the . . . under secretary of defense for acquisition and make a recommendation: Should we continue with this project?"

According to MDA's latest budget justification summary, the agency is requesting $187 million for fiscal year 2010 for the ABL program, down from the $401 million appropriated in FY-09.

"This scaling back of the ABL program retains funding for the lethal shoot-down later this year with the Tail #1 aircraft; retention of critical skills needed for optics and fire control; and continued test flights and de-commissioning of the aircraft if the flight tests are unsuccessful," the summary reads. The agency also -- under the direction of Defense Secretary Robert Gates -- is canceling the design and purchase of a second ABL aircraft.

On the day before national elections take place in Afghanistan, country experts emphasized the uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's results as well as their inability to predict what those results -- whatever they may be -- will mean for Afghanistan's security.

J. Alexander Thier, senior rule of law adviser at the United States Institute for Peace, said today that risk and instability would likely follow the election due to the high perception of fraud and corruption. These perceptions have been exacerbated by the recent controversial election in Iran, he said, adding that many Afghans also believe that the United States will have a hand in who wins.

Thier spoke, along with retired Lt. Gen. David Barno, at the Center for National Policy.

Both men agreed that all outcomes would invariably be accompanied by a level of risk and turbulence in the country.

"I expect tomorrow is going to be a violent day in Afghanistan," said Barno.

The speakers also said it would take time for the security situation to improve and for the Obama administration's multipronged strategy to produce results.

By next summer, Barno said all arrows currently pointing down would have bottomed out and start to turn upward, particularly the security indicators. But, he predicted a lot of violence between now and then.

Paul McHale, former assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and the discussion's moderator, said he believed it would take longer -- three to five years -- for real improvement to show. McHale said he agrees with David Kilcullen's recent assessment of two years of fighting left, followed by three years of transitioning operations to the Afghan security forces.

Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said today that a cargo ship that mysteriously disappeared has been found near the Cape Verde archipelago in the Atlantic Ocean, according to wire service reports.

He said details would be forthcoming about what happened to the ship, which is called the Arctic Sea, as well as why communications with it were lost and why it changed its itinerary.

Why we point this out: Search efforts over the last past 10 days reportedly involved rare coordination between Russia and NATO.

And: Yesterday, Finnish authorities dismissed talk that the vessel was carrying nuclear cargo.

The Army is in standing up a new center intended to improve the efficiency of its unmanned aircraft system efforts, service officials said last week.

At a conference in Washington, Tim Owings, the Army's deputy program manager for UAS, told reporters that the Army is relocating a number of its unmanned systems, including Shadow, Hunter and Sky Warrior, to Dugway Proving Ground, UT.

The consolidated site at Dugway is called the Rapid Integration and Acceptance Center, Owings said, and will include acceptance testing, logistics support, contractor training and quick reaction fielding, among other capabilities, according to his briefing slides.

Owings said he expects the consolidation at RIAC to "reduce the time line by about 75 percent in terms of integration time lines."

His briefing slides indicate that RIAC will be activated this fall, and Owings said the consolidation effort there will be complete 12 to 18 months from now.

NATO is using a new Web site to solicit feedback from the public on the organization's plan for a new strategic concept, a key foundational document for the alliance. The existing concept dates back to 1999 -- years before September 11, the Afghanistan war, piracy and cyber attacks changed the international security environment, as NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen points out in an introductory video message on the site.

“The discussion forum will be your opportunity to help shape the new NATO,” Rasmussen said.

Rasmussen, by the way, seems well versed in the use of social media tools. He also has a video blog, a facebook account and a Twitter page.