Water World

The intelligence community this morning released an unclassified study on global water security.

The bottom line, according to the assessment:

During the next 10 years, many countries important to the United States will experience water problems -- shortages, poor water quality, or floods -- that will risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important US policy objectives. Between now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia will face major challenges coping with water problems.

This isn't the first time the intelligence community has worried about the availability of potable water across the globe, however.

Following a March 2 speech Defense Secretary Leon Panetta gave in Louisville, KY, Panetta was asked about climate change and its possible effect on national security. Here's what he said, according to a Pentagon transcript:

With regards to climate change, the -- actually, what we developed at the CIA was an intelligence branch of the CIA that focused on that issue actually for intelligence purposes, because of the implications that these changes might have with regards to national security.

For example, when we incur greater droughts, when we incur areas that in fact have less rain and are incurring unusual climate impacts, it creates obviously an impact in terms of the population.  It's something we have to be aware of because that can create chaos.  We've seen that happen in Africa.  We've seen that happen in other parts of the world.  So we need to have that kind of intelligence.

In addition, because of the ice melt, there are indications of a rising ocean.  We've already seen that take place.  And there our concern is how will that impact on ports, how will that impact on facilities, how will that impact on low line levels that could be impacted by that?  So we continue to try to get intelligence on that as well.

In addition, obviously, we do look at the polar ice cap and are able through imagery to determine what's happening with polar ice cap and just how quickly is it melting and what that impact will be.  I can tell you.  As the polar ice cap melts, the national security implications are that countries like Russia and others are going to be looking for the opportunity to go into those areas and try to go after the resources in the Arctic.  They've already made claims to that effect.

So clearly as it melts, as those opportunities increase, then there are countries that are going to assert themselves, try to gain access to the resources that are there.  That also constitutes an issue that relates to national security.

So from an intelligence point of view, it's important for us to keep track of those trends.  You know, this isn't about the battle of climate change and the issues related to that.  This is about what we are seeing happen and the intelligence that flows from that.  And that is important for us to consider as we look at issues that can threaten America's national security.

. . . And one can go ever further back: In June 2008, InsideDefense.com cited a senior intelligence official as saying that climate change could lead to a range of global crises over the next two decades that would degrade U.S. military readiness by diverting key transportation assets and combat support forces. Further:

Thomas Fingar, deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, told a joint House committee hearing today [June 25, 2008] in testimony that such crises might include humanitarian relief operations and missions to prop up governments of weak states reeling from extreme weather events.

These findings -- distilled from an assessment of the national security implications of global climate change prepared by all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, portions of which InsideDefense.com first reported last week -- could have direct implications for Pentagon planners responsible for the size and shape of U.S. forces as well as the portfolio of weapon systems the Defense Department buys.

"As climate changes spur more humanitarian emergencies, the international community's capacity to respond will be increasingly strained," states Fingar's testimony, prepared for a joint hearing today of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.

"The United States, in particular will be called upon to respond," he said. "The demands of these potential humanitarian responses may significantly tax U.S. military transportation and support force structures, resulting in a strained readiness posture and decreased strategic depth for combat operations."

Another finding with immediate relevance to Pentagon planners concerns possible warming temperatures in Africa, an event that could have particular consequence for the Defense Department as it works to establish a new unified U.S. military command with responsibility for overseeing the American operations there.

"The United States' new military area of responsibility -- Africa Command -- is likely to face extensive and novel operational requirements," Fingar's prepared testimony states. "Sub-Saharan African countries -- if they are hard-hit by climate impacts -- will be more susceptible to worsening disease exposure. Food insecurity, for reasons of both shortages and affordability, will be a growing concern in Africa as well as other parts of the world. Without food aid, the region will likely face higher levels of instability -- particularly violent ethnic clashes over land ownership."

In general, the intelligence community assessment found that climate change may trigger food and water shortages, aggravate health problems and the spread of disease, increase the potential for conflict, property damage -- including critical infrastructure -- and erode coasts.