The Insider

By John Liang
August 9, 2010 at 5:37 PM

At least one analyst is downplaying the notion in the news last week that China's new missile could be a "carrier killer." As the Associate Press reported last week:

U.S. naval planners are scrambling to deal with what analysts say is a game-changing weapon being developed by China -- an unprecedented carrier-killing missile called the Dong Feng 21D that could be launched from land with enough accuracy to penetrate the defenses of even the most advanced moving aircraft carrier at a distance of more than 1,500 kilometers (900 miles).

But Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute doesn't seem to think so. In a blog entry posted today, he writes:

I haven't seen the intelligence reports, so maybe all the alarm is warranted. But I doubt it. China has yet to conduct a single realistic test of the conventionally-armed ballistic missile. Even if it performs as feared, there is a glaring omission in all the threat mongering: the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) has no reliable way of actually targeting U.S. carrier task forces when they are at sea. No matter how accurate the new missile's guidance system may be, Chinese military commanders need to know where to aim it -- especially since a near miss with a conventional warhead has pretty much the same military value as missing by a hundred miles. So how exactly is the PLA supposed to find U.S. carriers, when they are constantly moving and actively excluding hostile forces from their immediate vicinity?

The answer is that it can't. "Four and a half acres of sovereign U.S. territory" -- the way carrier proponents often describe flattops -- may sound like a huge target, but in fact it is a mere speck in the vast expanses of the Western Pacific. For example, the modestly-sized South China Sea that Beijing keeps trying to claim for itself contains over a million square miles of water, in which a carrier can easily hide. And that's only a small part of the East Asia littoral. I calculated a decade ago that to acquire continuous target-quality information for the entire South China Sea, the PLA would need over a hundred low-earth-orbit reconnaissance satellites moving in three parallel tracks. At the moment, China only has a handful of such satellites, and as a result most of the time its overhead sensors aren't anywhere near areas of interest. It also has over-the-horizon radars and roaming submarines, plus a fleet of reconnaissance aircraft, but these do not add up to the seamless targeting network the PLA would need to track and attack a U.S. carrier.

By John Liang
August 6, 2010 at 9:16 PM

The Army this afternoon released its second annual "Sustainability Report" highlighting energy and environmental achievements and milestones supporting the service's sustainability concept and goals. Specifically, according to a Pentagon statement:

The annual sustainability report informs primary stakeholders, partners, the American people, and other interested parties on the Army's progress to embody the principles of sustainability in its operations and installation management.

"Army leadership has come to understand the potential for sustainability to strengthen national security.  What had previously yielded benefit through environmental initiatives is emerging as an important tool for countering the destabilizing effects of emerging challenges from competition over limited and diminishing resources, as well as population movements, pandemics and other climate change-related events," said Under Secretary of the Army Joseph W. Westphal, who serves as both the Army's senior sustainability official and chief management officer.

Throughout the Army, efforts are underway to further recognize sustainability as an organizing principle.  Army sustainability results from aligning the Army's mission with environmental stewardship and community well being, plus the economic benefit accrued from reduced waste and increased efficiency.

Twenty-eight Army installations have undergone integrated strategic and sustainability planning which requires long-term sustainability plans and goals to meet future mission and community needs.  All new Army construction since fiscal 2008 has been required to be designed to the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Silver minimum standard.  Further, efforts are underway to ensure that all new Army acquisition programs include the fully burdened cost of energy in the selection process to maximize the productivity of energy needed to meet our operational capabilities.

By Jason Sherman
August 6, 2010 at 3:33 PM

The Pentagon has announced a trio of potential foreign sales of military equipment and goods: $2 billion in fuel to Israel; $162 million for nine UH-60L Black Hawk helicopters to Colombia; and $152 million deal for technical support of Iraq's Mi-17 helicopters.

By Jason Sherman
August 6, 2010 at 2:46 PM

The Senate last night confirmed two officials to key national security positions: Marine Corps Gen. James Mattis to be chief of U.S. Central Command and James Clapper, a retired Air Force three-star general and former under secretary of defense for intelligence, to be the director of national intelligence.

By John Liang
August 5, 2010 at 3:16 PM

The stage appears to be set for who will compete for the right to continue developing the Pentagon's Ground-based Midcourse Defense system, with Lockheed Martin and Raytheon announcing this morning that the two companies had entered into a partnership to compete for the multibillion-dollar contract.

In May, the Missile Defense Agency released an amended and updated draft request for proposals for the contract that would re-open competition for its GMD "development and sustainment" effort. As Inside Missile Defense reported:

"The [Statement of Work] and Task Orders have changed considerably in format and work scope since release of the original" draft RFP in January, the agency states in a May 14 letter attached to the amended request.

According to the original Nov. 25, 2009, FedBizOpps notice, the contract, with a potential annual value of $600 million, would involve "future development; fielding; test; systems engineering, integration and configuration management; equipment manufacturing and refurbishment; training; and operations and sustainment support" for the GMD system and associated support facilities.

"The potential scope described in the previous announcement has been revised to include significant requirements beyond GMD operations and logistics support," the agency notice stated, adding that the contract number had been changed to reflect the new competition.

Boeing had been operating under the second of a series of six-month "bridge" contracts as the main contractor for the GMD program, with MDA never having signed the company to a final deal to complete the system's core elements.

In December 2008, the contract Boeing had been working under since 2001 became "too complex to administer effectively" and associated cost overruns had changed the program's technical content and schedule, MDA said in a statement issued earlier that year. The agency decided to end that contract on Dec. 31, 2008, and have Boeing signed to a new, so-called "core-completion contract," which took place in March.

MDA spokesman Richard Lehner told InsideDefense.com in a March e-mail that "the GMD Core Contract follow-on modification was signed on March 10, 2010, with an effective date the same. It was not a new contract and therefore it was not formally announced" as a new Defense Department contract award or on Federal Business Opportunities, he added.

In January, MDA decided to open its GMD effort up to other potential offerors, resulting in the draft RFP release.

According to a joint Lockheed-Raytheon statement released this morning:

Together, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon develop, produce and sustain leading interceptor weapon systems for missile defense.  As strategic partners for GMD Development and Sustainment, the companies will apply their proven experience to ensure the reliability and readiness of the GMD element of the Ballistic Missile Defense System, which defends our nation, deployed military forces, and friends and allies against a limited attack by intermediate- and long-range ballistic missiles.

"Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are continuing a successful track record of delivering on key missile defense programs," said Mathew J. Joyce, GMD vice president and program manager, Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company. "Lockheed Martin and Raytheon systems combined have achieved more than 50 intercepts in combat and testing – more than any other team." These systems include Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense including Standard Missile-3, Patriot and Patriot Advanced Capability-3, and GMD Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle.

"In addition to our highly successful Standard Missile-3 interceptor and our proven GMD Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle expertise, Raytheon brings important capabilities in manufacturing, mission assurance and readiness that will help to ensure a smooth transition in responding to the government's needs for this critical national system," said Frank Wyatt, Raytheon vice president of Air and Missile Defense Systems.

As a strategic partner to Lockheed Martin, Raytheon's role will span systems engineering, development, manufacturing, testing, training and operations and sustainment at all of the key GMD sites.  For this next phase in the GMD lifecycle, the Lockheed Martin-Raytheon team has the most experience, is the best qualified, and provides the greatest value to ensure our warfighters have a ready and capable interceptor weapon system.

In June, Boeing and Northrop Grumman announced their intention to partner up to compete for the contract:

"Boeing takes great pride in supporting the Missile Defense Agency on GMD, providing round-the-clock protection of the United States against attack by ballistic missiles, and we are pleased to join with Northrop Grumman in this competition for future development and support of this critical element of America's defense," said Greg Hyslop, vice president and general manager, Boeing Strategic Missile & Defense Systems. "This partnership offers MDA the most experienced and responsive team, ready to adapt GMD to future needs and requirements. At the same time, this proven team will continue to offer the warfighter an unmatched level of mission readiness, availability and support -- affordably and with the lowest risk."

. . . Boeing will build on its experience of supporting the MDA as prime contractor for the development, deployment, integration and testing of the GMD weapon system since 2001. The Boeing-led team currently operates and sustains the deployed weapon system while developing and testing innovative technologies to provide greater reliability and meet its customer's evolving needs and requirements.

Northrop Grumman is responsible for designing and deploying the command-and-control systems that form the backbone of the GMD ground system, known as GMD Fire Control/Communications (GFCC) products. GFCC products connect and orchestrate GMD components that launch and guide interceptors in flight. Northrop Grumman has developed and sustained ground-based missile systems for more than 50 years and has been prime contractor for the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) weapon system since 1997. Northrop Grumman has been part of the Boeing GMD team for more than 10 years.

By Jason Sherman
August 4, 2010 at 6:58 PM

Defense Secretary Robert Gates has tapped three senior Marines for new posts, including one key Joint Staff billet -- the director for operations -- according to a Pentagon announcement:

Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., to serve as the assistant commandant of the Marine Corps and for appointment to the rank of general.  Dunford is currently serving as the commanding general, I Marine Expeditionary Force; and commander, U.S. Marine Corps Forces Central Command in Camp Pendleton, Calif.

Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Thomas D. Waldhauser, to serve as the commanding general, I Marine Expeditionary Force/commander, U.S. Marine Corps Forces Central Command and for re-appointment to the rank of lieutenant general.  Waldhauser is currently serving as the deputy commandant for plans, policies, and operations in Washington, D.C.

Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Robert B. Neller to serve as the director for operations, J-3, Joint Staff and for appointment to the rank of lieutenant general.  Neller is currently serving as the president, Marine Corps University in Quantico, Va.

By John Liang
August 4, 2010 at 5:10 PM

The European aerospace and defense industry's "main credit risks are likely to shift to defense from commercial in the next year," according to a new assessment by the Fitch credit-rating agency.

In a recent investor presentation in London, Fitch analysts found that:

With overall defense budgets in Western Europe under pressure from the general high budget deficits of most countries, the companies most exposed to European defense spending may see their traditional revenue base shrinking in real terms. These companies may choose to pursue growth in many emerging markets, although export opportunities are becoming increasingly competitive and politicised as more and more developed markets-based defense companies chase a limited number of sizeable contracts in countries such as India and Brazil.

By Dan Dupont
August 4, 2010 at 3:52 PM

The Senate Armed Services Committee today approved the nomination of Gen. James Mattis for the post of U.S. Central Command chief, as well as the nominations of a couple of key National Nuclear Security Administration officials, according to the panel.

In a statement, the committee said it voted favorably to approve the nominations of Anne Harrington as deputy administrator for NNSA, and Neile Miller for the slot of principal deputy administrator.

Jonathan Woodson's nomination for the post of assistant secretary for health affairs was also sanctioned. All three nominations were sent to the floor for full Senate approval.

In addition, "4,300 pending military nominations in the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps" were sent to the floor.

By John Liang
August 3, 2010 at 10:35 PM

One of the main stumbling blocks to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's efforts to approve the ratification of the follow-on Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty has been committee Republicans' wish to view the negotiating record of the talks between U.S. and Russian officials that culminated earlier this year. As Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) said last month:

"There are so many things that we have not yet had permission to read," Kyl said, including the State Department's record of the negotiations between U.S. and Russian officials that concluded earlier this year. There are "still hundreds of questions that have not been answered from the administration. . . . Both the Armed Services Committee and the (Select) Intelligence Committee have more hearings and more work to do, even if the Foreign Relations Committee is ready to wind her up," he continued, adding: "And of course there's the resolution for ratification -- we have not even begun to consider the things that need to go into that.

"What thoughtful people need to do is to say, 'Slow down, you will have a better chance of getting the treaty through if you try to do it the right way," he continued. "If you try to run roughshod over those who have legitimate questions to ask, you try and jam it through and you don't take into account the things that we've raised here, then you are less likely to get it ratified than you are if you do it right,' even, I would suggest, if we get into the next Congress."

Looks like he and other treaty skeptics may have gotten their wish. In a letter sent to panel members by Chairman John Kerry (D-MA) this afternoon and first reported by Politico, Kerry writes:

Responding to requests from several senators, the Executive branch has now provided a thorough summary of the New START negotiating record regarding missile defense.

Kerry's letter also lists the other documents provided by the White House:

* On May 13, the treaty text, protocol, and annexes were submitted to the Senate, with a detailed article-by-article analysis of every provision.

* On May 13, the President also submitted a comprehensive plan for maintaining and modernizing the nuclear weapons complex.

* On June 30, the Intelligence Community submitted a National Intelligence Estimate assessing its ability to monitor compliance with the terms of the New START Treaty.

* On July 2, the State Department submitted a report assessing international compliance with arms control agreements, including Russia’s compliance with the original START Treaty.

* On July 12, the State Department submitted an analysis of the New START Treaty’s verifiability.

* Over the course of the last month, the Executive branch has responded to hundreds of questions for the record that members posed to Committee witnesses.

Kerry's letter states that committee members should be prepared to vote on approving the treaty on either Sept. 15 or Sept. 16.

By John Liang
August 3, 2010 at 7:52 PM

Traditional satellite manufacturers should be quaking in their boots every time someone says a certain three letters: UAV. That's among the assertions made in a recent study conducted by independent research organization Market Intel Group LLC, which states that future UAVs "pose a commercial threat as well as a significant opportunity to existing and planned satellite networks." Specifically:

Truly persistent UAVs, first lighter-than-air then more traditional fixed-wing aircraft, will soon behave like satellites. At least five efforts are currently underway in the United States to prototype stratospheric airships as a means to fly UAVs over one point for between a month and five years. DARPA, the U.S. military’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, finished initial work on such airships nearly three years ago and should reach the same point for aircraft by 2013.

Such persistent UAVs may end up taking away from satellites "traditional" and evolving functions as well as customers. They may also provide a robust opportunity for satellite vendors to "join-in on the action" in this market, by taking, for example, a healthy slice of the Command and Control sector.

The next technology forecast in Market Intel Group's (MiG) UAV series: UAVs for Commercial Applications – will detail traditional space capabilities that will probably migrate, to some extent, to persistent UAVs. Satellite vendors' response to this evolving threat is mixed: For example, Boeing's leadership is "bullish" on persistent UAVs and their space experts have partnered with their unmanned aircraft team. That company recently announced that its military aviation divisions would concentrate on unmanned aircraft for the foreseeable future.

On the other end, a number of satellite service providers have no idea that UAVs could be more than the flying camera and Hellfire platforms of current military operations.

Typical Stratospheric UAV Coverage Area (Radar, Laser & Optical)

Why is this important? UAVs that hold position at perhaps 65,000' over one point, indefinitely, function more like geostationary satellites than like aircraft. Such systems are sometimes called "pseudolites" by the GPS community, for example, because they will deliver 'satellite' capabilities from other platforms. But the UAV capabilities will be delivered at perhaps one-tenth of similar space capability costs, while also reaching unmodified transceivers like cell phones.

MiG's available UAV forecasts include studies on Border Security and Counter-Insurgency. Both of those fields will also be revolutionized by true persistence. For example, insurgents require anonymity to survive. The fight is essentially over when they are identified. Most of those prototype stratospheric airships are intended to strip that anonymity and so end the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today's satellite technologies will never deliver similar capabilities.

By Sebastian Sprenger
August 3, 2010 at 4:23 PM

A story in the July 5 issue of Inside the Army about Harris Corp.'s offering for the Joint Tactical Radio System program made quite a splash in industry circles. Harris' Steve Marschilok contacted us about the story recently, and his letter to the editor is now posted below the original article.

Marschilok also forwarded a copy of a 2007 memo from John Grimes, the Defense Department's former chief information officer, to support Harris' case.

Naturally, we will continue to follow the debate about the "JTRS approved" label.

By John Liang
August 3, 2010 at 3:15 PM

The Army's plan to resume year-round, live-fire training at an Alaskan range is running up against significant concerns from both the Environmental Protection Agency and activists, Defense Environment Alert reports this morning.

Environmental activists are charging that the proposal will effectively violate a settlement agreement reached in a landmark case that contended Army training practices were breaching federal waste and water laws. Specifically:

The 2004 settlement had restricted the Army to using an impact range at Ft. Richardson's Eagle River Flats (ERF) seasonally, but the Army now wants to return to full training, contending the restrictions jeopardize troops' ability to be combat ready. The Army outlined its plans in a draft environmental impact statement (EIS), which the military released in March.

EPA Region X in recently submitted comments lists "serious concerns" with the potential impacts stemming from two different proposals analyzed under the draft document, particularly citing issues over water impacts, Superfund cleanup requirements and environmental justice impacts. At the same time, activists are raising issues over the plan's compliance with the 2004 settlement agreement that effectively limited live-fire training to certain seasons, and are specifically raising issues over water quality and endangered species.

"We are particularly concerned with the potential impacts to water quality, wetlands, Cook Inlet beluga, salmon stocks, shorebirds, other waterfowl, wildlife, recreation, visual resources, environmental justice (EJ), sensitive human populations, and commercial, recreation and subsistence fishing activities associated with the action alternatives," EPA Region X says in June 10 comments.

Live-fire training at ERF - a marshy area that has been used as a primary munitions impact area of Fort Richardson - has long been a contentious issue. In 2002, the Alaska Community Action on Toxics (ACAT) filed suit, alleging violations of the Clean Water Act and state and federal waste laws at the base, which is on the National Priorities List, the list of the nation's most hazardous waste sites. The suit alarmed high-level DOD officials, who worried that a damaging precedent could be set if the plaintiffs won and forced the military to stop training on an operational range, thereby impeding military readiness. Prior to the settlement, the military often cited the case as proof it needed Congress to relax environmental legal requirements in order to preserve military training.

Under the 2004 settlement, the Army halted live-fire training at ERF during summer and fall waterfowl migratory periods, which aimed to prevent the Army from stirring up white phosphorous in the sediment. White phosphorous had previously been used in smoke-generating munitions and was responsible for the deaths of numerous wild birds who ingested it. Firing is also only allowed if a certain level of ice thickness covers the water bodies in ERF.

In addition, under the settlement, the Army must conduct numerous other activities, including monitoring for migration of munitions constituents off-range, monitoring endangered beluga whales, analyzing environmental impacts of alternative training options upon remediation of the white phosphorous and before lifting any restrictions; documenting chemical constituents of munitions used, and applying for a Clean Water Act permit for the operational range.

But in the draft EIS notice, the Army says that it has undertaken cleanup of the white phosphorous under Superfund law, which will be completed this year, and that given ERF's importance as an environmental resource, it would adopt a set of new restrictions to protect valued resources under the expanded training plan (Defense Environment Alert, March 16). These would include following prohibitions against using munitions containing phosphorous in wetlands such as ERF, using environmentally-friendly training rounds when possible, and barring certain live-fire exercises during spring and fall waterfowl migration periods, among other measures.

By John Liang
August 2, 2010 at 8:21 PM

The House Appropriations Committee generally follows the practice of not making public the nitty-gritty details of its defense subcommittee mark-ups -- beyond some overall numbers -- until after the full committee has considered and passed the spending bill.

That, however, doesn't stop individual subcommittee members from releasing certain details on their own. A case in point is subpanel member Steve Rothman (D-NJ), who in a statement released today shed some light on fiscal year 2011 funding for U.S.-Israeli missile defense efforts:

On July 27, 2010, the Appropriations Defense Subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives sent a strong message – to our allies and enemies alike – by appropriating more funds than ever before toward joint U.S.-Israel and Israeli missile defense programs. This is only the latest example that when it comes to defense, military, and intelligence cooperation, the relationship between the U.S. and Israel has never been stronger.

Chairman Norm Dicks, myself and all the members of the Defense Subcommittee understand how important it is to be at the cutting edge of anti-missile technology, both to safeguard our own citizens and troops, but also those citizens and troops of our allies and friends such as the people of the Jewish state of Israel.

Given the concern and attention that we are focusing now on every dollar we are expending on behalf of the U.S. taxpayer for all purposes, including the defense of the United States and its allies, it is a mark of the importance of these projects that they were all funded so robustly and fully by our Subcommittee.

The Appropriations Defense Subcommittee has just appropriated $217.7 million in funding for essential joint U.S.-Israel missile defense programs, which is an increase of $95.7 million in funds over the original request. I am proud that since 2007, the Appropriations Defense Subcommittee has allocated more than $750 million in federal funding for the Arrow and David’s Sling anti-missile systems. Including this year’s allocation of $205 million toward Israel’s Iron Dome program, the Subcommittee has allocated nearly one billion dollars toward these three missile defense systems over the past three years.

I thank President Barack Obama, Chairman of the Defense Subcommittee, Norm Dicks, and all my colleagues on the Subcommittee for their leadership and vision in providing this life-saving support. The growing proliferation and increasing deadliness of missiles around the world pose a direct threat to the U.S. and our allies, making funding missile defense systems vitally important for America’s national security.

By Jason Sherman
August 2, 2010 at 7:46 PM

Using a scenario that reads like it was ripped from the pages of a thriller screenplay, the North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD) Command today announced plans for a first-ever cooperative air defense exercise with Russia's air force:

The basic premise is that a U.S.-flagged commercial air carrier on an international flight (Fencing 1220) has been taken over by terrorists.  The aircraft will not respond to communications.  The exercise scenario will create a situation that requires both the Russian Air Force and NORAD to launch or divert fighter aircraft to investigate and follow Fencing 1220.  The exercise will focus on shadowing and the cooperative hand-off of the monitored aircraft (Fencing 1220) between fighters of the participating nations.

A U.S. AWACS E-3B and a Russian A-50 along with fighter-interceptor and refueling aircraft will participate in the exercise, which is designed around two international flights that will follow the same route: one originating in Alaska and traveling to the Far East followed by one originating in the Far East and traveling to Alaska.

Dubbed "Vigilant Eagle," the four-day exercise will take place "on or about" Aug. 8 to 11 and involve U.S., Russian and Canadian officials participating in both the United States and Russia. Along with the military, U.S. and Russian civilian air control agencies will also take part.

The impetus for this exercise, a NORAD spokesman told InsideDefense.com, is a Sept. 2003 agreement between then-U.S. President Bush and then-Russian President Putin for their nations' militaries to increase cooperation in three areas: counterterrorism, missile defense, and peacekeeping.

By Marcus Weisgerber
August 2, 2010 at 7:05 PM

Boeing announced this afternoon that it is moving its C-130 Avionics Modernization Program and B-1B bomber program from Long Beach, CA, to Oklahoma City, according to company officials.

About 550 of the approximately 800 positions in California will relocate to Oklahoma, according to a Boeing statement. "The remaining positions will be reduced from the programs over the next two years as contracts are fulfilled," the statement reads.

Boeing Vice President and General Manager of Maintenance, Modifications & Upgrades Mark Bass said relocating the programs will help the company "provide a more competitive cost structure for customers."

"Making a decision like this is never easy, but as we reviewed our anticipated operating costs for the next several years, it became clear that Boeing needs to take major actions on these programs in order to remain affordable for our customers," Bass said in the statement. "We remain committed to maintaining the excellent record of performance that our employees deliver for our U.S. Air Force B-1 and C-130 AMP customers during this transition."

Boeing is building a new avionics kit for legacy C-130H aircraft and is the B-1B prime contractor.