Eyes On China

The Congressional Research Service issued a report this week that outlines potential oversight issues for lawmakers regarding China's naval modernization efforts.

The July 31 report -- originally obtained by Secrecy News -- notes the Pentagon's planned strategic policy shift toward the Asia Pacific region. Further:

Decisions that Congress and the executive branch make regarding U.S. Navy programs for countering improved Chinese maritime military capabilities could affect the likelihood or possible outcome of a potential U.S.-Chinese military conflict in the Pacific over Taiwan or some other issue. Some observers consider such a conflict to be very unlikely, in part because of significant U.S.-Chinese economic linkages and the tremendous damage that such a conflict could cause on both sides. In the absence of such a conflict, however, the U.S.-Chinese military balance in the Pacific could nevertheless influence day-to-day choices made by other Pacific countries, including choices on whether to align their policies more closely with China or the United States. In this sense, decisions that Congress and the executive branch make regarding U.S. Navy programs for countering improved Chinese maritime military forces could influence the political evolution of the Pacific, which in turn could affect the ability of the United States to pursue goals relating to various policy issues, both in the Pacific and elsewhere.

As Inside the Pentagon reported last week:

The United States should declare that mutual nuclear vulnerability with China is a "fact of life" for both countries rather than investing in strategic offensive and defensive capabilities designed to negate China's nuclear forces, according to a draft report prepared by a federal advisory panel led by former Defense Secretary William Perry.

Inside the Pentagon obtained a copy of the May 23 draft report, a product of the State Department's International Security Advisory Board. Last year, then-Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Ellen Tauscher commissioned the report on "maintaining U.S.-China strategic stability." The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review report called for pursuing "strategic stability" with China, but whether the U.S. government should declare mutual nuclear vulnerability has been a subject of debate.

The draft report states that China's efforts to build a "survivable second-generation sea-based and mobile land-based nuclear force" are advancing and will in time produce a "larger and less vulnerable force with more (from 25 to about 100) [intercontinental ballistic missiles] capable of striking the United States." Chinese perceptions of U.S. intentions, missile defenses and nuclear and precision conventional strike capabilities will likely steer decisions about China's nuclear force posture, the panel writes. Chinese leaders have "been determined to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent regardless of U.S. choices and will almost certainly have the necessary financial and technological resources to continue to do so," the draft report argues.