Missile Matters

This week's successful shoot-down of a ballistic missile target by a Standard Missile-3 Block 1A interceptor in the Pacific Ocean has boosted the confidence of the missile's builder in the development of the next-generation SM-3 Block 1B missile.

"The Block 1B is very common to the Block 1A, so from the booster system and the flyout systems -- both first stage, second stage and third stage -- they are exactly alike, so it builds more confidence . . . as we evolve the SM-3 system," according to Raytheon's SM-3 Program Director Mitch Stevison. As InsideDefense.com reported yesterday:

"We push technology where we have to -- we have a very rapid and evolving threat out there in this world, and we push technology to deal with that threat, but we don't push technology in areas where we have a very good understanding and characterization of the system," Stevison said. "So from that aspect, every SM-3 flight that we do builds confidence on the next block evolution that we are doing.

"So for the 1B missile, we'll learn from this test, even the engagement endgame pieces of what we do, we will pull the data from this test, and use it to continue to build robust sensor discrimination algorithms in the future," he continued. "So yes, the short answer is it's very, very important, we use all the data from Block 1A to build upon to ensure that we will have more robustness in the Block 1B missile, as we now transition it from a development program into a production program."

The fourth-generation version of that missile meant for deployment in Europe -- and still under development -- doesn't inspire much confidence in the Government Accountability Office, though. In a report released on Monday, GAO states:

While [the Missile Defense Agency's] initial assumption was the missile was to be land-based, the program is now requiring the SM-3 Block IIB to be ship and land compatible. However, if the SM-3 Block IIB is sea based and uses a liquid propellant, there are significant safety risks and unknown but likely significant cost implications. Navy has stated that the program may develop concepts with liquid propellants, but it has not made a final decision regarding whether it will overturn its 1988 ban on liquid propellants on ships and allow a sea-based SM-3 Block IIB to use liquid propellants.

To some extent, this progression has been driven by the early decision to narrow solutions to an Aegis-based missile without the benefit of a robust analysis of other alternatives. While this does not mean the SM-3 Block IIB is not a viable choice, we have previously reported that without fully exploring alternatives, programs may not achieve an optimal concept for the war fighter, are at risk for cost increases, and can face schedule delays or technology maturity challenges.

Read the full GAO report.