North Korea Conundrum

What to do about North Korea will likely be one of the discussion items while President Obama attends this week's G-20 summit in Seoul.

With that in mind, the Council on Foreign Relations today released a "contingency planning memorandum" titled "Military Escalation in Korea," in which the council's Center for Preventive Action (CPA) Director Paul Stares "warns that a new crisis on the Korean peninsula is a serious risk and urges the United States to work closely with Seoul to monitor warning indicators in the North," according to a council statement. Specifically:

Further provocations by North Korea as well as other military interactions on or around the Korean peninsula carry the danger of unintended escalation, writes Stares. Moreover, changes underway in North Korea could precipitate new tensions and herald a prolonged period of instability that raises the possibility of military intervention by outside powers.

Stares analyzes potentially dangerous situations that could erupt due to the atmosphere of recrimination and mistrust that exists between North and South Korea; the possibility of provocative, domestically driven, North Korean behavior; and the potential for a troubled succession process in Pyongyang. He concludes that the United States has a strong and abiding interest in taking steps to prevent another Korean war and provides the following recommendations to reduce the risk of unwanted military escalation in the region.

-The United States and South Korea should continue to maintain their heightened vigilance through enhancements to their surveillance and intelligence-gathering capabilities. Particular attention should be paid to likely warning indicators, such as succession instability, notable anniversaries and dates, and missile and nuclear tests.

-The United States should continue to reassure South Korea of its alliance commitments and also help it to fix certain defensive weaknesses identified in the wake of the investigation on the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan on March 26, 2010, which claimed the lives of forty-six sailors.

-A concerted diplomatic effort should be made to reduce tensions on the peninsula and to contain North Korea’s pursuit of additional nuclear weapons and long-range missile capabilities. Encouraging Beijing to restrain Pyongyang’s provocative behavior in the interests of regional stability must continue.