PAA Skeptics

The Federation of American Scientists today announced the publication of a study written by FAS Scientific Consultant Yousaf Butt and MIT Professor Ted Postol that assesses the Obama administration's proposed Phased Adaptive Approach (PAA) missile defense system. Suffice it to say that they're not very optimistic of the chances that Russia will sit idly by and accept it:

While the United States continues to work with Russia to find a path forward on missile defense, Russian military strategists know that Iran does not at present have the capabilities to attack Europe. The potential for an arms race depends on Russia's reaction to Washington.

The Russian Federation might react by increasing the number or capabilities of their nuclear-armed missiles and/or by ending or blocking future nuclear arms reductions negotiations with the United States. This will have far-ranging implications for global security, and for President Obama's goal of a world free of nuclear weapons. Before the missile defense system is implemented, Dr. Butt and Prof. Postol recommend a non-partisan peer-reviewed study of its costs and benefits to U.S. and NATO security.

In practice the PAA will provide little, if any, protection leaving nuclear deterrence fundamentally intact. While the PAA would not significantly affect deterrence, it may be seen by cautious Russian planners to impose some attrition on Russian warheads. While midcourse missile defense would not alter the fundamental deterrence equation with respect to Iran or Russia, it may, in the Russian view, constitute an infringement upon the strategic balance set down in New START -- especially with regard to the SM-3 Block II interceptors because of their theoretical capability.

The Standard Missile-3, the cornerstone of the administration's proposed PAA, suffered a failed intercept attempt earlier this month. As Inside Missile Defense reports this morning:

In the wake of the most recent Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense intercept failure, Senate appropriators want to tweak the funding line for the system that missed its intended target.

The Pentagon's fiscal year 2012 budget request includes nearly $565.4 million for the procurement of 46 Standard Missile-3 Block IB missiles, according to the report accompanying the Senate Appropriations Committee's FY-12 defense-spending bill.

"Following developmental challenges and schedule delays, MDA revised its acquisition strategy for the SM-3 Block IB missile in February 2011 and initiated a series of flight tests that are intended to culminate in a production decision in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2012," the report states.

However, on Sept. 1 an SM-3 Block IB interceptor failed to hit its target in a test off the coast of Hawaii (Inside Missile Defense, Sept. 7, p1).

According to briefing slides presented by MDA Director Lt. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly at a missile defense conference last month, the next test of the system is scheduled for the third quarter of fiscal year 2012. An agency spokesman told IMD earlier this month that no decisions have yet been made regarding any changes to the test schedule as a result of the failed Sept. 1 intercept attempt.

Even with no decision yet by MDA, Senate appropriators expect a delay to the SM-3 Block IB acquisition schedule, according to the report. "The committee notes that SM-3 missiles are in high demand by combatant commanders around the world, and is concerned that a delay to the SM-3 Block IB's test and acquisition schedule will negatively impact mission capability, shut down the vendor base, and drive up costs of the SM-3 production line."

Consequently, "[n]oting the relative success of the SM-3 Block IB's predecessor, the SM-3 Block IA missile, and its high commonality with the SM-3 Block IB," the panel directs MDA to apply the $565.4 million in the FY-12 budget "requested for the procurement of 46 SM-3 Block IB interceptors to SM-3 Block IA missiles should the test and acquisition schedule for Block IB missiles require any adjustments during fiscal year 2012," the report states. "The committee expects to be fully informed about progress of the SM-3 Block IB missile's test and development schedule and of any changes to its acquisition strategy."

For more on FY-12 missile defense appropriations:

Senators Deny Army-MDA Program Transfers, Lament Lack Of Analysis

Appropriators Want MRBM Target Funding Moved To Aegis Program Office

Senate Committee Action Could Save MEADS From Termination In FY-12

Appropriators Call For Missile And Space Intel Center Five-Year Plan

Bill Puts GCV, THAAD, VXX In Budget Crosshairs