Panetta On Climate Change

Following a speech he gave this morning in Louisville, KY, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was asked about climate change and its possible effect on national security. Here's what he said, according to a Pentagon transcript:

With regards to climate change, the -- actually, what we developed at the CIA was an intelligence branch of the CIA that focused on that issue actually for intelligence purposes, because of the implications that these changes might have with regards to national security.

For example, when we incur greater droughts, when we incur areas that in fact have less rain and are incurring unusual climate impacts, it creates obviously an impact in terms of the population.  It's something we have to be aware of because that can create chaos.  We've seen that happen in Africa.  We've seen that happen in other parts of the world.  So we need to have that kind of intelligence.

In addition, because of the ice melt, there are indications of a rising ocean.  We've already seen that take place.  And there our concern is how will that impact on ports, how will that impact on facilities, how will that impact on low line levels that could be impacted by that?  So we continue to try to get intelligence on that as well.

In addition, obviously, we do look at the polar ice cap and are able through imagery to determine what's happening with polar ice cap and just how quickly is it melting and what that impact will be.  I can tell you.  As the polar ice cap melts, the national security implications are that countries like Russia and others are going to be looking for the opportunity to go into those areas and try to go after the resources in the Arctic.  They've already made claims to that effect.

So clearly as it melts, as those opportunities increase, then there are countries that are going to assert themselves, try to gain access to the resources that are there.  That also constitutes an issue that relates to national security.

So from an intelligence point of view, it's important for us to keep track of those trends.  You know, this isn't about the battle of climate change and the issues related to that.  This is about what we are seeing happen and the intelligence that flows from that.  And that is important for us to consider as we look at issues that can threaten America's national security.

A Defense Science Board report published last November said that the Pentagon must better prepare for conflict and humanitarian disasters triggered by climate change by adopting a raft of alterations to its organization, policy, force structure, facilities, training, security assistance and coordination with other agencies. As InsideDefense.com reported:

The DSB's "Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security" calls on the Pentagon to develop a "strong climate information system database" to predict where weather patterns are likely to cause instability, according to an October report, released this week. The report focuses on the potential for climate change-related crises to affect African nations.

"Climate change will only grow in concern for the United States and its security interests," Paul Kaminski, chairman of the Defense Science Board, writes in an Oct. 4 memo forwarding the task force's recommendations to the Pentagon's acquisition executive. "This report offers guidance to the Department of Defense on how to become a leader in mitigating and adapting to its growing effects."

The task force was directed last year by Ashton Carter, then the Pentagon's top acquisition official, to conduct a sweeping assessment of the trends and implications of climate change for national and international security. Carter has since been named deputy defense secretary.

The Defense Department, according to the task force, "can play an important role by providing climate change data and warning" as well as assisting foreign militaries in understanding how dramatic weather events could impact their force structure, facilities and overall security situation.

"Climate change is likely to have the greatest impact on security through its indirect effects on conflict and vulnerability," states the report. "Climate change is more likely to be an exacerbating factor for failure to meet basic human needs and for social conflict, rather than the root cause."