The Insider

Early Warning
By John Liang
November 9, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence recently completed a report on maritime and air domain awareness.

Titled "Global Maritime and Air Communities of Interest Intelligence Enterprises" and first obtained by the Federation of American Scientists' Secrecy News, the report describes "the level of integration and collaboration achieved" since the inception of the maritime and air domain awareness mission. It warns that the threat from terrorists or other non-state actors remains high, specifically with efforts to cripple the various elements of the global supply chain.

According to the report:

The key to successfully achieving persistent domain and cross-domain awareness goals, and efficiently defeat adversaries, is to improve all-source analysis focused on illicit trafficking net-works to effectively narrow the search to a specific vessel, aircraft, container and/or person that represents a threat. Our adversaries take advantage of the relative anonymity of the global commercial environment to accomplish their objectives. Each conveyance carrying humans and/or cargo is vulnerable to this threat, yet tracking all conveyances and cargo alone will not provide insight into the potential for hazard. Understanding the networks of human beings behind the cargo and conveyance is a valid means and more resource efficient method of ascertaining the threat. Actions taken by the IC since 9/11 demonstrate that information on illicit and other criminal activity in the global transportation network affords critical insights into the intentions of those who would do us tremendous harm. Examining smuggling networks, front companies, and "gray" actors and transactions have resulted in successful interdictions of people and cargo who clearly pose national security threats. Notably, much of the data necessary for this intelligence production resides outside the traditional IC, existing within law enforcement, regulatory, private sector and foreign organizations in the global communities of interest.

There is a growing consensus that urgency has waned since 9/11, and we are still not able to rapidly "connect the dots." It is therefore imperative that we accelerate efforts to create a globally networked and unified intelligence enterprise steadily focused on maritime, air and intermodal mission sets, with the means to integrate and leverage federal, state, tribal, local, private and foreign entities to support the common goal of shared attentiveness to potential threats. Persistent domain and cross-domain awareness grants time and distance to detect, deter, interdict and defeat such threats. Only through an inclusive, collaborative approach can we gain the critical information that lies outside of traditional intelligence collection that will create the incisive understanding and decision advantage necessary for anticipatory and proactive measures.

Commissioned
By Christopher J. Castelli
November 6, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The Commission on Wartime Contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan has a new member: Katherine Schinasi. Today's Congressional Record says Schinasi was appointed to the seat vacated by Linda Gustitus.

Schinasi, who spent five years as a managing director at the Government Accountability Office, joined The Conference Board as a senior adviser in March, according to her LinkedIn profile.

Meanwhile, four staffers from the commission are in Iraq and Kuwait this week conducting interviews and briefings on the challenge of managing the huge contractor workforce that supports U.S. operations in Southwest Asia.

“Managing the Iraq drawdown will involve many contractors in closing hundreds of bases and processing more than three million pieces of U.S. property,” Robert Dickson, the panel's executive director, said in a statement. “We are interested in the adequacy of the planning, management, and oversight of a major contractor effort. The welfare of the troops, the achievement of U.S. objectives, and good stewardship of taxpayers’ money require it.”

Words of Wisdom
By Sebastian Sprenger
November 5, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center blog this week featured two fascinating briefings outlining the experiences of Afghan soldiers and U.S. Marines during operations in southern Afghanistan.

The slideshow showcasing the 1st Bn, 5th Marines lessons learned emphasizes the need to develop a good rapport with the local population.

* Listen to people’s problems and ideas. Never be in a rush to end a conversation.
* Drink tea when it is offered. You’ll get more and better information.
* Be prepared to speak in a mosque. What you say here will be remembered.

The Marines' slides also include some tactical tips.

* Make the Taliban afraid to go into the corn.
* Sheep and goats are a form of route clearance.
* Watch what people sell in the bazaars. Know how to recognize ((Improvised Explosive Device)) components.

The ANA commander's tips are more general in nature. Among other things, he writes:

* Do not clear if you cannot hold; do not hold if you are not prepared to build.
* Execute small achievable essential needs for great enduring effects. The people know what they need.

Much more, including lots of photographs, is in the complete presentations.

Known Unknowns
By Sebastian Sprenger
November 4, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The likelihood of another catastrophic attack against the United States naturally is a big topic in defense circles these days. By extension, the issue has enormous defense budget implications. It is also provides a subtext for the question of what the Obama administration's strategy should be to combat terrorist safe havens worldwide, like in Afghanistan or Pakistan.

Earlier this year, Defense Science Board experts issued a report outlining steps the Defense Department should take to reduce the chance that adversaries could one day deal a surprising blow to America's security.

Today, the Federation of American Scientists' Secrecy News blog brings news of another DOD advisory panel, the JASONs, taking up the topic.

The October 2009 report, titled "Rare Events," examines how the chance of an attack with weapons of mass destruction against the United States could be determined -- if it can be predicted at all.

To find the answer, defense officials should stay away from strictly quantitative modeling schemes and instead turn to the scientific methods of the social sciences, the report states. After all, the issue has mostly to do with predicting the behaviour of humans, the authors argue.

The combined urgency of the rare event threat, the difficulty of evaluating rare event models, and the complexity of social sciences problems has led some to advocate the suspension of normal standards of scientific hypothesis testing, in order to press models quickly into operational service. While appreciating the urgency, JASON believes such advice to be misguided. The threat of “rare events” will be with us for a long time. Like finding a cure for cancer or predicting earthquakes, this is a difficult research area that will most likely make progress in many small steps.

And speaking of human behavior, JASON panelists urge defense officials to add "motivation" to the existing WMD threat evaluation scheme of "intent/capability/opportunity." Further studying the issue of terrorist attack motivation, and perhaps finding a way to eliminate it, could help anticipate "rare events," the authors argue.

Truck Times
By Marjorie Censer
November 4, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Marine Corps Brig. Gen. Michael Brogan on Monday criticized an argument advanced by a Lexington Institute analyst, Loren Thompson, who Brogan said indicated in a recent report that there would be "potential conflict" between the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected All-Terrain Vehicle program and the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles "rebuy" effort, both won by Oshkosh.

BAE Systems, the FMTV incumbent, has filed a protest with the Government Accountability Office, and Thompson of the Lexington Institute wrote in a Sept. 17 "issue brief" that M-ATV was a factor ignored by the Army in its award to Oshkosh.

At an M-ATV display at the Pentagon this week, Brogan denied the report's claim, telling reporters "that's just not the case" and called discussion of overlap between the two efforts "a pure red herring."

Now, Thompson has posted a new brief on the matter, noting Brogan's comments.

"The offending passage was actually part of a single sentence, and not central to my main thesis: that the Army performed an incomplete and amateurish evaluation of bids when it awarded a contract under the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles (FMTV) program to the Oshkosh Corporation," Thompson writes. "I predicted the Government Accountability Office would agree with protests lodged by losing bidders BAE Systems and Navistar, forcing a new competition."

Thompson stands by his prediction, arguing the Army still made critical errors in awarding the contract to Oshkosh, including simply accepting the company's significantly lower price without a rigorous analysis and ignoring the risk posted by the company's inexperience.

"GAO will see this award for what it was, and act accordingly," he concludes. Thompson, who also runs a for-profit consulting shop, has told InsideDefense.com that BAE Systems is one of his clients.

According to his spokeswoman, Brogan was unavailable for comment today.

IED Summit
By Marjorie Censer
November 4, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Defense Secretary Robert Gates held a meeting this afternoon to bring together "all the disparate elements" of the Defense Department that seek to fight improvised explosive devices in an effort to address the IED problem in Afghanistan, DOD spokesman Geoff Morrell said today.

Morrell told reporters the meeting is "probably the biggest meeting of this kind" that he knows of.

The event was set to convene representatives from the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle task force; the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance task force; and the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization -- as well as those in theater using a secure video teleconference, according to Morrell.

"These are all individual groups that have done a tremendous amount of good in their respective areas," he told reporters. "But we need to make sure that we are bringing all of our resources to bear together and are collaborating effectively and providing our troops . . . with whatever they need: armored protection, ISR, new capabilities, authorities, better command and control, those kinds of things."

Morrell stressed that Gates remains "very concerned about" IEDs in Afghanistan but declined to say what today's discussion would produce. He left open the possibility that similar meetings would be convened in the future.

"((L))et's have the meeting and see what comes of it and see if more are required, as likely will be," Morrell said. "And we'll go from there. But this is something . . . that is clearly a priority for him."

On Ice
By Thomas Duffy
November 3, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Today is Nov. 3. The new fiscal year for the Defense Department and every other government agency started 33 days ago. But Congress still hasn't passed the DOD appropriations bill for FY-10. And from what we were told this morning, it won't get to it this week either.

On July 30 the House approved its version of the defense appropriations bill. The Senate said yes to its version on Oct. 6. But a congressional source tells us there has been no movement on getting members from both chambers into a room and reaching a final agreement on the bill that will be sent to the president.

The raging bull that is running through the halls of Congress is health care. The congressional source noted that the House will take up that legislation this week, leaving in doubt when the House will even get around to naming those members who will be conferees for the defense bill.

To date, Congress has approved -- and the president has signed into law -- five of the 12 annual appropriations bills.

Report Card
By Thomas Duffy
November 2, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Last Friday the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction issued his latest quarterly report on Iraq. The report takes a close look at what needs to be done as the U.S. military prepares to withdraw from the country it has occupied since March 2003.

In an overview of the report, the IG says the following:

In January 2010, Iraq will conduct its first parliamentary election in five years. The citizens of Iraq will seat a new Council of Representatives (CoR) and electorally judge Prime Minister al-Maliki’s performance for the first time since he took office in spring 2005. The new CoR will confront several key unresolved issues, including enhancing security, stabilizing relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and developing Iraq’s economy.

The security picture in Iraq remains mixed. Although the number of attacks in August 2009 was down 85% from August 2007 levels, 456 Iraqis were killed during the month -- the highest total in more than a year. On August 19, terrorists displayed their continuing capacity to strike at the heart of Iraq’s government when they detonated two massive car bombs that partially destroyed the Ministries of Finance and Foreign Affairs.

In July, the Kurdistan Region conducted successful presidential and parliamentary elections that saw opposition parties make substantial inroads into the ruling coalition’s grip on KRG governance structures. The region’s new government is faced with the compelling need to reach an accord with the GOI on how to equitably share oil revenues and how to resolve the Kirkuk problem.

Going Hunting
By Sebastian Sprenger
November 2, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Here's a novel idea from a Joint Special Operations University report: Establish something like a "National Manhunting Agency."

Such a focused organization would counter the U.S. government's tendency for mere "ad hoc" operations when it comes to killing or capturing terrorists and criminals, argues report author George Crawford, a former military interrogator who now does consulting for a "client in the Washington, DC, area."

So important are quality "manhunting" skills that they should, in fact, be seen as a critical instrument of national power, the author argues.

Of course, the business requires swift action. Unfortunately, the author finds that the "glacial progress of national affairs" and the "tectonic pace" with which the international community moves are a bit of an impediment.

The solution could be some sort of quasi-official international coalition, according to the report. "A strategic-international organization could be facilitated by a treaty-level document or accord that would allow enforcement of international manhunting-related law," the report proposes.

We'll have to look that one up -- "international manhunting-related law."

Major Meeting
By Christopher J. Castelli
October 30, 2009 at 5:00 AM

President Obama will meet with the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Afghanistan and Pakistan this afternoon in the Situation Room.

Here’s the expected attendance list, released by the White House:

Vice President Biden
Defense Secretary Robert Gates
National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen
Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. James Cartwright
Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey
Marine Commandant Gen. James Conway
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Gary Roughead
Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz
Deputy National Security Adviser Tom Donilon
Assistant to the President for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security John Brennan
Special Assistant to the President for Afghanistan and Pakistan Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute

And the Number Is . . .
By Sebastian Sprenger
October 30, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The National Intelligence Program received $49.8 billion in taxpayer money during fiscal year 2009, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair disclosed today. The number is the third publicly available NIP topline figure since Congress legislated that the number be revealed, starting in 2007. The figure for FY-08 was $47.5 billion, and $43.5 billion for FY-07.

Blair told reporters last month the government's overall intelligence budget was $75 billion. That figure includes the other program making up the intelligence budget: the Military Intelligence Program.

Confirmed
By Christopher J. Castelli
October 29, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The Senate yesterday confirmed Christine Fox to be director of the Pentagon's Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation shop. Fox, who recently stepped down as president of the Center for Naval Analyses, has nearly 30 years of experience as an analyst and research manager focused on defense issues.

And get this: She was also the inspiration for Kelly McGillis' character Charlotte “Charlie” Blackwood in "Top Gun."

The original script called for McGillis’s character to be a Navy officer. “The admiral assigned by the Navy to oversee the production had script approval,” Fox recalls, adding that of course, the officer–officer romance was a no-go. “Then ((Bruckheimer)) suggested that the character could be an aerobics teacher at the Officer’s Club,” Fox says. “((The admiral)) replied, ‘How about ((modeling the character after)) my CNA rep?’” . . .

“I later read a review panning ‘Top Gun,’ as being completely unrealistic that a civilian woman would work in such a macho environment,” Fox says, laughing. “I thought about writing that reviewer a letter to set him straight.”

The Senate also confirmed Gladys Commons to be the Navy's comptroller. From 2002 to 2004, Commons served as comptroller of Military Sealift Command where she directed the programming, budgeting, and execution of a $2.4 billion annual budget that provided resources to operate a fleet of 131 logistics force, special mission, strategic sealift and prepositioned ships.

Balloon Spotting
By Sebastian Sprenger
October 29, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency today announced a novel way to win $40,000: Coinciding with the 40th anniversary of the Internet, agency officials will deploy 10 tethered, red balloons all over the continental United States in early December. The idea for participants in the challenge is to mobilize social media-savvy friends who will supply location information through Facebook, or Twitter or what-have-you whenever they spot one of the specimens.

The spectacle will "explore the role the Internet and social networking plays in the timely communication, wide area team-building and urgent mobilization required to solve broad scope, time-critical problems," DARPA said in an announcement today.

Bets are still being taken for how long it will take for the first participant to get all 10 locations right.

To-Do List
By Sebastian Sprenger
October 28, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Army Lt. Gen. Thomas Metz, the outgoing director of the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization, yesterday told reporters a bit about how a few general IED-related topics are treated in the ongoing Quadrennial Defense Review.

"Build and plan for institutionalized counter-IED capabilities" -- that's one of three goals listed on a briefing slide presented by the general. The term-of-art "institutionalization" has long been a favourite of defense leaders in that context.

The goal of increasing "partner capacity" and information sharing also made the QDR list. With billions spent, the United States is perhaps the best equipped among the coalition forces in Afghanistan when it comes to countering makeshift bombs. But what about the rest of NATO troops and Afghan security forces?

While JIEDDO can offer training to others, organization officials lack the legal authorities to give their international brothers-in-arms actual equipment, Metz said. He steered clear of saying whether he sees this as an impediment, noting U.S. Central Command chief Gen. David Petraeus would to have be the one initiating any change.

"I'm not in the business of spending any funds given to me by Congress on anything other than U.S. forces," Metz said.

Finally, another goal in the QDR is to "ensure counter-IED is part of the cultural fabric of DOD," the briefing reads. "I believe we are in the counter-IED fight for years, for decades," Metz said.

In Afghanistan, IEDs now account for 70 to 80 percent of coalition casualties, he noted.

Bold Move
By Thomas Duffy
October 27, 2009 at 5:00 AM

This morning at Camp Lejeune, NC, and the Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point, NC, warfighters from the United States and 10 allied countries start a nine-day exercise to assess air-to-ground identification systems with an eye toward reducing friendly fire incidents.

Called “Bold Quest 09,” the exercise is being run by U.S. Joint Forces Command. This is the seventh consecutive annual Bold Quest event organized by the command.

The command provided the following description in a statement issued yesterday:

In 2008, U.S. and allied consensus endorsed the continuation of Bold Quest assessments on a recurring basis. Bold Quest 2009 (BQ09) is scheduled in October and November 2009 at Camp Lejeune, N.C. Four U.S. services, U.S. Special Operations Command and 11 nations’ militaries will deploy ground and aviation elements to assess air-to-ground target identification solutions for fixed wing aircrew, forward air controller and joint terminal attack controller employment. Concept development for future Bold Quest initiatives in 2010 and beyond is in progress.

The BQ09 technical initiatives include prototype systems that enable aircrew and controllers to digitally exchange position information with friendly ground elements relative to their presence in the vicinity of potential ground targets. The expected outcome will improve the engagement process and reduce the risk of fratricide.

The command said that past Bold Quest exercises looked at the ability of ground forces to work with and identify each other. This year's event will assess how aircrews carry out the same duties.