The Insider

By John Liang
November 11, 2009 at 5:00 AM

An international coalition of military officials is pushing for the adoption of an ambitious climate-change treaty to keep national security threats from impacting global warming, Defense Environment Alert reports this week.

The action could add new life to upcoming global talks amid waning expectations that an agreement can be reached this year.

While the group's argument is not new, it could also spur momentum for aggressive emission-reduction targets by demonstrating a growing international consensus on the security threats from climate change, an argument made by proponents of legislation about the rising costs of inaction on climate change, DEA reports.

Specifically:

The coalition, which includes both retired and active military officials as well as a U.S.-based national security think tank, is making its pitch as national delegations are preparing to meet in Copenhagen in December to negotiate a successor to the Kyoto climate treaty, and as the Senate begins to consider climate legislation -- with advocates of the bill similarly linking climate change to national security impacts.

The coalition’s Military Advisory Council (MAC), which comprises former and active general and flag officers from various countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, India and the Netherlands, issued a position statement Oct. 29 to parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), aimed at drawing support for a treaty based on the reasoning that global warming, left unchecked, poses national security threats.

The position statement also calls for countries to weave security impacts from climate change into individual defense strategies and to curb their militaries’ carbon emissions.

The Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), a prominent U.S-based think tank, is one of several research groups, including the Institute for Environmental Security, backing the effort by the MAC.

The MAC in its statement to the UNFCCC delegates says climate change will cause significant “human misery,” biodiversity loss and infrastructure damage with resulting security implications. It calls on delegates to the UNFCCC to develop “an ambitious and equitable” international treaty at Copenhagen. It also asks that all governments integrate the security implications of climate change into their respective military strategies, and that all militaries help resolve climate change by lowering their own carbon “bootprint.”

If the delegates fail to “deliver an effective and institutionally robust climate protection system, preserving security and stability even at current levels will become increasingly difficult,” the statement reads.

MAC members said at a follow-up press conference following release of the position statement that examples of ways in which governments can integrate security implications of climate change into their military strategies include the work the Defense Department is now doing to include climate effects in its Quadrennial Defense Review. Other measures that could be taken include predicting regional impacts of changes, assisting planning programs to avoid or mitigate climate change, and conducting disaster planning and training, members said.

By Sebastian Sprenger
November 11, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Government Accountability Office auditors recently said the Defense Department still lacks needed information on contractors working in the U.S. Central Command region, despite Pentagon efforts to address the issue.

Defense officials introduced the Synchronized Predeployment and Operational Tracker (SPOT) system some years ago to keep tabs on how many contractors are working for DOD overseas, where they are located and what exactly they were hired to do. Since then, officials have been scrambling to make the use of SPOT mandatory for contractors, rewriting procurement regulations to that effect and reminding contracting officers to get their suppliers' records into the SPOT database as soon as possible.

In a new CENTCOM order, dated Oct. 31, officials are taking another step. The order comes in the wake of the latest GAO report on the topic of contractor visibility, which said Pentagon officials lack uniform criteria for issuing "letters of authorization" to contractors. The documents grant workers access to the war zones of Iraq and Afghanistan, and they are required for receiving DOD support services while deployed.

As of Dec. 1, CENTCOM officials will no longer accept "manual" LOAs, the order reads. Instead, all contractors must go through the SPOT application to obtain a system-generated LOA. Those without SPOT-issued LOAs after the deadline will no longer be eligible for identification cards, military transport or DOD medical services in theater, the order reads.

In addition, the order requires all armed contractors to be registered in SPOT, complete with data about the weapons they are authorized to carry. Moreover, officials must enter instances of contractors killed, missing, wounded or cases of misconduct into SPOT, the order reads.

By John Liang
November 10, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The Missile Defense Agency's Airborne Laser program may be on life support in real life, but in the world of fiction, it's still on life support.

There's a new book due out in February 2010 titled "Able One" and written by prolific science fiction novelist Ben Bova. It chronicles the crew of the first ABL aircraft as they respond to the launch of a nuclear missile by a group of rogue North Koreans that explodes in space. The ensuing electromagnetic pulse fries most of the commercial satellites in orbit.

According to the back-cover blurb on the advance copy just received by InsideDefense.com today:

When a nuclear missile launched by a rogue North Korean faction explodes in space, the resulting shockwave destroys most of the world's satellites, throwing global communications into chaos. U.S. military satellites, designed to withstand such an assault, show that two more missiles are sitting on launch pads in North Korea, ready to be deployed. Faced with the threat of a thermonuclear attack, the United States has only one possible defense: Able One.

ABL-1, or Able One, is a modified 747 fitted with a high-powered laser able to knock out missiles in flight. But both the laser's technology and the jet's crew is untested. What was originally a training flight with a skeleton crew turns into a desperate race to destroy the two remaining nukes. Will Able One's experimental technology be enough to prevent World War III -- especially when it becomes clear that a saboteur is on board?

We won't spoil the ending for you -- you'll just have to get your own copy in February.

By John Liang
November 10, 2009 at 5:00 AM

President Obama today nominated Erin Conaton, the House Armed Services Committee's staff director, to become the next under secretary of the Air Force.

According to her White House bio:

Erin C. Conaton is currently the staff director for the House of Representatives’ Committee on Armed Services (HASC). In that capacity, she serves as the primary advisor to Chairman Ike Skelton (D-MO) and the 61 other members of the Armed Services Committee. She directs the committee’s 70 person staff who support the HASC members with drafting and negotiating each year’s National Defense Authorization Act, which provides annual funding and authorities to the Department of Defense. In the 109th Congress, she was the committee's Minority Staff Director. Prior to that, since joining the HASC staff in 2001, she served as a Professional Staff Member covering a range of defense policy issues. Before joining the committee staff, she was the Research Staff Director for the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (the Hart-Rudman Commission) in the Department of Defense. She holds a bachelor’s degree from Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and a master's degree from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

By Sebastian Sprenger
November 9, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Defense Department officials today invited government and industry representatives to offer their view on conflicts of interest arising from certain contractor constellations in major defense programs.

The invitation comes as the deadline nears for a Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement revision mandated by the Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009. The legislation, enacted in May, requires DOD to "provide uniform guidance and tighten existing requirements for organizational conflicts of interest by contractors." The DFARS revision is due 270 days after enactment of the WSARA legislation, which puts the deadline sometime in February.

Pentagon officials want feedback on potential conflicts of interest as they relate to the use of lead system integrators and contractors with several business units working on the same project.

The public meeting is scheduled for Dec. 8 at the General Services Administration auditorium in Washington, according to a Federal Register notice posted today.

By John Liang
November 9, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence recently completed a report on maritime and air domain awareness.

Titled "Global Maritime and Air Communities of Interest Intelligence Enterprises" and first obtained by the Federation of American Scientists' Secrecy News, the report describes "the level of integration and collaboration achieved" since the inception of the maritime and air domain awareness mission. It warns that the threat from terrorists or other non-state actors remains high, specifically with efforts to cripple the various elements of the global supply chain.

According to the report:

The key to successfully achieving persistent domain and cross-domain awareness goals, and efficiently defeat adversaries, is to improve all-source analysis focused on illicit trafficking net-works to effectively narrow the search to a specific vessel, aircraft, container and/or person that represents a threat. Our adversaries take advantage of the relative anonymity of the global commercial environment to accomplish their objectives. Each conveyance carrying humans and/or cargo is vulnerable to this threat, yet tracking all conveyances and cargo alone will not provide insight into the potential for hazard. Understanding the networks of human beings behind the cargo and conveyance is a valid means and more resource efficient method of ascertaining the threat. Actions taken by the IC since 9/11 demonstrate that information on illicit and other criminal activity in the global transportation network affords critical insights into the intentions of those who would do us tremendous harm. Examining smuggling networks, front companies, and "gray" actors and transactions have resulted in successful interdictions of people and cargo who clearly pose national security threats. Notably, much of the data necessary for this intelligence production resides outside the traditional IC, existing within law enforcement, regulatory, private sector and foreign organizations in the global communities of interest.

There is a growing consensus that urgency has waned since 9/11, and we are still not able to rapidly "connect the dots." It is therefore imperative that we accelerate efforts to create a globally networked and unified intelligence enterprise steadily focused on maritime, air and intermodal mission sets, with the means to integrate and leverage federal, state, tribal, local, private and foreign entities to support the common goal of shared attentiveness to potential threats. Persistent domain and cross-domain awareness grants time and distance to detect, deter, interdict and defeat such threats. Only through an inclusive, collaborative approach can we gain the critical information that lies outside of traditional intelligence collection that will create the incisive understanding and decision advantage necessary for anticipatory and proactive measures.

By Christopher J. Castelli
November 6, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The Commission on Wartime Contracting in Iraq and Afghanistan has a new member: Katherine Schinasi. Today's Congressional Record says Schinasi was appointed to the seat vacated by Linda Gustitus.

Schinasi, who spent five years as a managing director at the Government Accountability Office, joined The Conference Board as a senior adviser in March, according to her LinkedIn profile.

Meanwhile, four staffers from the commission are in Iraq and Kuwait this week conducting interviews and briefings on the challenge of managing the huge contractor workforce that supports U.S. operations in Southwest Asia.

“Managing the Iraq drawdown will involve many contractors in closing hundreds of bases and processing more than three million pieces of U.S. property,” Robert Dickson, the panel's executive director, said in a statement. “We are interested in the adequacy of the planning, management, and oversight of a major contractor effort. The welfare of the troops, the achievement of U.S. objectives, and good stewardship of taxpayers’ money require it.”

By Sebastian Sprenger
November 5, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center blog this week featured two fascinating briefings outlining the experiences of Afghan soldiers and U.S. Marines during operations in southern Afghanistan.

The slideshow showcasing the 1st Bn, 5th Marines lessons learned emphasizes the need to develop a good rapport with the local population.

* Listen to people’s problems and ideas. Never be in a rush to end a conversation.
* Drink tea when it is offered. You’ll get more and better information.
* Be prepared to speak in a mosque. What you say here will be remembered.

The Marines' slides also include some tactical tips.

* Make the Taliban afraid to go into the corn.
* Sheep and goats are a form of route clearance.
* Watch what people sell in the bazaars. Know how to recognize ((Improvised Explosive Device)) components.

The ANA commander's tips are more general in nature. Among other things, he writes:

* Do not clear if you cannot hold; do not hold if you are not prepared to build.
* Execute small achievable essential needs for great enduring effects. The people know what they need.

Much more, including lots of photographs, is in the complete presentations.

By Sebastian Sprenger
November 4, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The likelihood of another catastrophic attack against the United States naturally is a big topic in defense circles these days. By extension, the issue has enormous defense budget implications. It is also provides a subtext for the question of what the Obama administration's strategy should be to combat terrorist safe havens worldwide, like in Afghanistan or Pakistan.

Earlier this year, Defense Science Board experts issued a report outlining steps the Defense Department should take to reduce the chance that adversaries could one day deal a surprising blow to America's security.

Today, the Federation of American Scientists' Secrecy News blog brings news of another DOD advisory panel, the JASONs, taking up the topic.

The October 2009 report, titled "Rare Events," examines how the chance of an attack with weapons of mass destruction against the United States could be determined -- if it can be predicted at all.

To find the answer, defense officials should stay away from strictly quantitative modeling schemes and instead turn to the scientific methods of the social sciences, the report states. After all, the issue has mostly to do with predicting the behaviour of humans, the authors argue.

The combined urgency of the rare event threat, the difficulty of evaluating rare event models, and the complexity of social sciences problems has led some to advocate the suspension of normal standards of scientific hypothesis testing, in order to press models quickly into operational service. While appreciating the urgency, JASON believes such advice to be misguided. The threat of “rare events” will be with us for a long time. Like finding a cure for cancer or predicting earthquakes, this is a difficult research area that will most likely make progress in many small steps.

And speaking of human behavior, JASON panelists urge defense officials to add "motivation" to the existing WMD threat evaluation scheme of "intent/capability/opportunity." Further studying the issue of terrorist attack motivation, and perhaps finding a way to eliminate it, could help anticipate "rare events," the authors argue.

By Marjorie Censer
November 4, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Marine Corps Brig. Gen. Michael Brogan on Monday criticized an argument advanced by a Lexington Institute analyst, Loren Thompson, who Brogan said indicated in a recent report that there would be "potential conflict" between the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected All-Terrain Vehicle program and the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles "rebuy" effort, both won by Oshkosh.

BAE Systems, the FMTV incumbent, has filed a protest with the Government Accountability Office, and Thompson of the Lexington Institute wrote in a Sept. 17 "issue brief" that M-ATV was a factor ignored by the Army in its award to Oshkosh.

At an M-ATV display at the Pentagon this week, Brogan denied the report's claim, telling reporters "that's just not the case" and called discussion of overlap between the two efforts "a pure red herring."

Now, Thompson has posted a new brief on the matter, noting Brogan's comments.

"The offending passage was actually part of a single sentence, and not central to my main thesis: that the Army performed an incomplete and amateurish evaluation of bids when it awarded a contract under the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles (FMTV) program to the Oshkosh Corporation," Thompson writes. "I predicted the Government Accountability Office would agree with protests lodged by losing bidders BAE Systems and Navistar, forcing a new competition."

Thompson stands by his prediction, arguing the Army still made critical errors in awarding the contract to Oshkosh, including simply accepting the company's significantly lower price without a rigorous analysis and ignoring the risk posted by the company's inexperience.

"GAO will see this award for what it was, and act accordingly," he concludes. Thompson, who also runs a for-profit consulting shop, has told InsideDefense.com that BAE Systems is one of his clients.

According to his spokeswoman, Brogan was unavailable for comment today.

By Marjorie Censer
November 4, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Defense Secretary Robert Gates held a meeting this afternoon to bring together "all the disparate elements" of the Defense Department that seek to fight improvised explosive devices in an effort to address the IED problem in Afghanistan, DOD spokesman Geoff Morrell said today.

Morrell told reporters the meeting is "probably the biggest meeting of this kind" that he knows of.

The event was set to convene representatives from the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle task force; the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance task force; and the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization -- as well as those in theater using a secure video teleconference, according to Morrell.

"These are all individual groups that have done a tremendous amount of good in their respective areas," he told reporters. "But we need to make sure that we are bringing all of our resources to bear together and are collaborating effectively and providing our troops . . . with whatever they need: armored protection, ISR, new capabilities, authorities, better command and control, those kinds of things."

Morrell stressed that Gates remains "very concerned about" IEDs in Afghanistan but declined to say what today's discussion would produce. He left open the possibility that similar meetings would be convened in the future.

"((L))et's have the meeting and see what comes of it and see if more are required, as likely will be," Morrell said. "And we'll go from there. But this is something . . . that is clearly a priority for him."

By Thomas Duffy
November 3, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Today is Nov. 3. The new fiscal year for the Defense Department and every other government agency started 33 days ago. But Congress still hasn't passed the DOD appropriations bill for FY-10. And from what we were told this morning, it won't get to it this week either.

On July 30 the House approved its version of the defense appropriations bill. The Senate said yes to its version on Oct. 6. But a congressional source tells us there has been no movement on getting members from both chambers into a room and reaching a final agreement on the bill that will be sent to the president.

The raging bull that is running through the halls of Congress is health care. The congressional source noted that the House will take up that legislation this week, leaving in doubt when the House will even get around to naming those members who will be conferees for the defense bill.

To date, Congress has approved -- and the president has signed into law -- five of the 12 annual appropriations bills.

By Thomas Duffy
November 2, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Last Friday the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction issued his latest quarterly report on Iraq. The report takes a close look at what needs to be done as the U.S. military prepares to withdraw from the country it has occupied since March 2003.

In an overview of the report, the IG says the following:

In January 2010, Iraq will conduct its first parliamentary election in five years. The citizens of Iraq will seat a new Council of Representatives (CoR) and electorally judge Prime Minister al-Maliki’s performance for the first time since he took office in spring 2005. The new CoR will confront several key unresolved issues, including enhancing security, stabilizing relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and developing Iraq’s economy.

The security picture in Iraq remains mixed. Although the number of attacks in August 2009 was down 85% from August 2007 levels, 456 Iraqis were killed during the month -- the highest total in more than a year. On August 19, terrorists displayed their continuing capacity to strike at the heart of Iraq’s government when they detonated two massive car bombs that partially destroyed the Ministries of Finance and Foreign Affairs.

In July, the Kurdistan Region conducted successful presidential and parliamentary elections that saw opposition parties make substantial inroads into the ruling coalition’s grip on KRG governance structures. The region’s new government is faced with the compelling need to reach an accord with the GOI on how to equitably share oil revenues and how to resolve the Kirkuk problem.

By Sebastian Sprenger
November 2, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Here's a novel idea from a Joint Special Operations University report: Establish something like a "National Manhunting Agency."

Such a focused organization would counter the U.S. government's tendency for mere "ad hoc" operations when it comes to killing or capturing terrorists and criminals, argues report author George Crawford, a former military interrogator who now does consulting for a "client in the Washington, DC, area."

So important are quality "manhunting" skills that they should, in fact, be seen as a critical instrument of national power, the author argues.

Of course, the business requires swift action. Unfortunately, the author finds that the "glacial progress of national affairs" and the "tectonic pace" with which the international community moves are a bit of an impediment.

The solution could be some sort of quasi-official international coalition, according to the report. "A strategic-international organization could be facilitated by a treaty-level document or accord that would allow enforcement of international manhunting-related law," the report proposes.

We'll have to look that one up -- "international manhunting-related law."

By Christopher J. Castelli
October 30, 2009 at 5:00 AM

President Obama will meet with the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Afghanistan and Pakistan this afternoon in the Situation Room.

Here’s the expected attendance list, released by the White House:

Vice President Biden
Defense Secretary Robert Gates
National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen
Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. James Cartwright
Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey
Marine Commandant Gen. James Conway
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Gary Roughead
Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz
Deputy National Security Adviser Tom Donilon
Assistant to the President for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security John Brennan
Special Assistant to the President for Afghanistan and Pakistan Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute