United Launch Alliance CEO Tory Bruno told reporters this week he expects future Space Force Launch Services Procurement strategies will call for more national security-unique requirements, potentially shifting the investment burden more toward the government and away from industry.
That shift, Bruno said, is linked to growing threats from adversaries like Russia and China that will drive the need for offensive and defensive requirements that aren't matched in the commercial sector and will likely shape the third phase of the service's LSP program and beyond.
"There is going to be far, far less overlap with commercial capabilities," he said. "The basic needs that we think will be present in Phase 3 that overlap with commercial are largely there now."
Many of those technologies fall into the category of things that ULA "would not want to talk about openly," but Bruno did discuss a few capabilities the company has suggested to the Space Force in response to a recent request for information calling for input as the service develops its future launch strategies.
Bruno said he envisions greater need for investment in upper-stage capabilities and technologies that could make it harder for adversaries to locate a space asset.
"These much more exotic capabilities that I envision being more centered on the upper stages, several of those simply do not have, and can never be imagined to have, a counterpart in commercial industry," he said. "Commercial telecom will not need many of the things that we are going to need to keep our national security assets safe."
Leading into Phase 2 of the Space Force's LSP strategy, the service -- then the Air Force -- entered into public-private partnerships with launch providers to fund rocket system development. Though the government invested more than $2 billion through the Launch Services Agreements in 2018, companies funded the majority share of development. Ultimately, the service chose ULA to launch 60% of its missions over the next five years and SpaceX to launch the remaining 40%.
That model worked to meet DOD's need in that instance, Bruno said, largely because the capabilities being developed would benefit both government and commercial customers. He said he thinks the Space Force should continue using public-private partnerships, but that the government would likely need to fund a greater share.
"Wherein Phase 2 industry actually provided the bulk, the majority, of the development investment, that's probably going to shift the other way," he said. "Government is going to find that they have unique needs that they will need to shoulder the investment burden for. So that's one of the things we have shared with them in terms of our viewpoint."
ULA has also encouraged the Space Force to pursue an acquisition strategy that allows for continuous capability on-ramps, Bruno said, even after the service enters into block launch procurement deals.
"As you would hear military people say, the enemy gets a vote on your strategy," he said. "So, we'll do something, they'll counter, we'll need to react."
Bruno said he's encouraged by the way the Space Force is thinking about the future launch landscape, and particularly its outreach to industry. He said recent RFIs reflect a recognition of the changing threat environment as well as the possibilities that new technologies could present for military space operations.
"They show a new paradigm in terms of how that mission is looked at," he said. "They talk about lift, but they also talk about maneuver and transport through space. . . . They have been very good about coming to industry and asking about the art of the possible in terms of technologies that are either presently available, in development or could be developed to solve these problems that they're facing."