The Insider

By Kate Brannen
September 24, 2009 at 5:00 AM

At a counterinsurgency conference in Washington yesterday Gen. Stanley McChrystal's leaked assessment of Afghanistan and its impact on the Obama administration's strategy for the war were the topics everyone wanted to talk about. For the counterinsurgency crowd, the underlying question was: Even if they are well-resourced, can counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan be successful? And, what have been the obstacles to success so far?

Most panel members painted a grim picture of the situation in Afghanistan, pointing to government corruption and poor leadership in the Afghan security forces as major obstacles to improving the security in the country.

Bing West presented a grave assessment of the situation that included photos and video from his recent trip there. Especially troubling to him, he said, is the Taliban's control of the beginning and end of firefights.

"We can put in more troops, but if we don't find a way to finish these fights, we'll have this conversation in a year or two years from now and the Taliban will still be intact," said West.

"What is our theory of victory?" he asked. "If you read the assessment that McChrystal came out with the other day, you read it very carefully, its theory of victory is not victory, it's transition -- and yet when you look at how do you transition, it becomes a bit fuzzy."

West said he is also troubled that the United States is building an Afghan army in its own image.

"They are all wearing armor, they're all wearing helmets, they're no more mobile than we are," he said. "When you get into a firefight, they immediately turn to the adviser, because he has permission to call in the indirect fires."

It is too early for the U.S. military to play the role of adviser or mentor, said Marine Col. Julian Dale Alford.

"The Afghan Army requires a partner force right now, then we can graduate to mentors and work our ways out of a job," he said. "We have it backwards."

He said the Afghan Army is doing well at the company-level and below, but at the battalion-level and above, they are struggling, "because they're trying to build the airplane while it's flying." It's at these levels where the lack of trained leadership is most telling and most detrimental, Alford and other panel members said.

Alford said that in order to truly partner with the Afghan security forces, the U.S. military needs to live with them, which is generally not the case now.

Alford also called for much better partnering with the Afghan police force -- an effort that will require at least 10 more brigades to adequately cover all of the districts, he argued.

"We have to do some real math and tell some real truth about what it's going to take if we're going to do population-centric COIN, because the police are the most important thing we're doing, and right now, we're not focused on it," said Alford.

By Sebastian Sprenger
September 24, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Shay Assad, the acting deputy under secretary of defense for acquisition and technology, recently reminded the military's contracting community to play by the book when it comes to paperwork for contracts within the U.S. Central Command area.

At issue is the mandatory Theater Business Clearance process, which provides crucial information on contracts and contractors to commanders in theater. The idea is for the services' various contracting shops to enforce compliance with the TBC process.

Apparently, not everyone got the memo.

"The Joint Contracting Command-Iraq/Afghanistan, CENTCOM, and our Joint Staff partners report that organizations are not complying with the TBC policy," Assad wrote in a Sept. 15 memo to the acquisition chiefs of the services, U.S. Special Operations Command, U.S. Transportation Command and the defense agencies.

Memo recipients have until Oct. 31 to have their contracting officers "affirm" compliance with TBC requirements, the missive states.

An August CENTCOM fact sheet describes some of the "recent operational challenges" resulting from missing TBC documentation. For example, "sensitive items" were shipped without the necessary in-transit visibility. Plus, DOD officials have no way of verifying that armed personnel working within the CENTCOM area have the proper training, licenses and authorizations needed to carry weapons, the fact sheet states.

By John Liang
September 23, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) doesn't think a hearing should be held just yet regarding the Obama administration's plans for Afghanistan, specifically about a report written by Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal -- the chief military official in Afghanistan -- warning that the situation in that country would deteriorate rapidly without additional U.S. and coalition troops.

In a letter sent today to committee Ranking Member John McCain (R-AZ) as well as Sens. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Levin writes:

I agree with you concerning the importance of succeeding in Afghanistan and the need for Congress and the American people to understand how the future of Afghanistan is linked to our own safety here at home.

At the present time, while General McChrystal has submitted his assessment of the situation on the ground and his recommendations concerning the strategy for Afghanistan up through the chain of command, he has not yet submitted his recommendation as to the resources that he believes would be needed to implement the strategy. I also understand that discussions on strategy are ongoing.

Under these circumstances I believe that it is premature to seek the military commanders' testimony on their resource recommendations to implement a strategy before the President's senior advisers, including Admiral Mullen and Secretary Gates, have had an opportunity to provide their advice to the President relative to those recommendations. That was how the Committee handled General Petraeus' testimony in support of the 2007 surge of U.S. forces in Iraq. President Bush announced the surge on January 10, 2007, Secretary Gates and General Pace testified before the Committee on January 12, and General Petreaus testified before the Committee on January 23.

By Sebastian Sprenger
September 23, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Last week's press conference on the new way ahead for a European missile defense system left some questions unanswered on where exactly the two or three American Aegis missile defense-capable vessels, portrayed as an instantly available capability for protecting Europe from Iranian short- and medium-range missiles, would sail.

Deploying them to the waters "in and around the Mediterranean and the North Sea, et cetera" was as specific as Gen. James Cartwright, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was going to get.

(Arguably, the North Sea is a bit of a geographic outlier, but we were assured by Cartwright's spokesman that the general wasn't misspeaking.)

Following the principle of getting interceptors as close as possible to a launch site inside Iran, the Black Sea also would be a suitable location for Aegis ships, as experts have noted.

The idea was picked up in a February Congressional Budget Office study exploring alternatives to the Bush-proposed system of stationary radar and interceptor sites in the Czech Republic and Poland.

But as attractive as a Black Sea option might be -- and a hypothetical Caspian Sea option, too, for that matter -- existing agreements covering those waters could make for some hiccups.

As for the Black Sea, the CBO report notes the Montreux Convention. The agreement, in force since 1936, "establishes Turkish control over the flow of ships between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea," the document states. It stipulates that "warships of non-Black Sea nations are not supposed to remain in the Black Sea for more than 21 days at a time," according to the report.

It is unclear if Pentagon officials are indeed envisioning Aegis deployments to the Black Sea, and whether the Montreux Convention is on their radar at all. According to Cartwright's spokesman, exact deployment locations of the vessels have yet to be figured out.

Perhaps this issue is where Washington diplomats hope to get some form of support back from Russia, as a Black Sea nation, now that the highly contentious Bush-era missile defense plan is off the table.

By Kate Brannen
September 23, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The Army's Capstone Concept, an important vision paper on the service’s view of the future and its own role in it, is now open to public feedback. Brig. Gen. H.R. McMaster, who has been tasked with leading the revision of the document, has sent a draft to Small Wars Journal with the goal of encouraging people to read it and submit comments and suggestions for review, according to the Web site.

This is just the beginning of an unusual series of reviews scheduled to take place before the Capstone Concept is published in December.

Before reaching final draft status, the document will be read and reviewed by a number of groups not normally included in Army concept development, Col. Bob Johnson, chief of joint and Army concepts at the Army Capabilities Integration Center, told Inside the Army in an interview in June.

Throughout the fall, the Army is planning review sessions with the think tank and academic community, as well as joint, interagency and multinational partners. The service is also organizing a number of workshops with graduate school students around the country.

FURTHER READING:

By Kate Brannen
September 23, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Brigade commanders echoed a recent New York Times op-ed today when they stressed how important interpreters are to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"I think the most important thing we could do to improve our operations dramatically in both Iraq and Afghanistan is increase the number of competent interpreters and to make sure that the contractors who provide interpreters, provide interpreters who speak English as well," said Army Brig. Gen. H.R. McMaster, speaking today at a counterinsurgency conference in Washington hosted by the Marines Corps University.

While this last point elicited laughter from the audience, McMaster and his fellow panel members emphasized the essential role interpreters play in counterinsurgency environments where local information and human intelligence are crucial to good decision-making.

An audience member asked the panel how much foreign language training soldiers and Marines need before they deploy.

"I think a commander needs a working vocabulary to be polite and make the effort to talk to people and greet them in their language," said Peter Mansoor, a retired Army colonel, who's now a military history professor at Ohio State University. But, beyond that, a commander has to rely on an interpreter, he said.

"It is dangerous for a commander, unless he is fluent, to rely on his limited capabilities in some of these situations," said Mansoor. Misinterpretations and misunderstandings can cause serious setbacks, he added.

By Christopher J. Castelli
September 23, 2009 at 5:00 AM

According to the Defense Department's Web site, Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn, Pentagon acquisition chief Ashton Carter and Air Force Secretary Michael Donley will conduct a briefing on the upcoming draft request for proposal for the KC-X tanker recapitalization program Thursday at 4 p.m. in the DOD briefing room.

InsideDefense.com first reported this on Tuesday:

Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn plans to brief lawmakers this Thursday on the Pentagon's new acquisition strategy for a fleet of Air Force aerial refueling tankers, a move that marks the relaunch of a $35 billion, winner-take-all competition between aerospace giants Boeing and Airbus, whose parent company EADS is partnered with Northrop Grumman.

The Pentagon today notified Congress that Lynn -- along with Pentagon acquisition executive Ashton Carter and Air Force Secretary Michael Donley -- will travel to Capitol Hill the morning of Sept. 24 to explain the new strategy for procuring the KC-X aircraft, according to congressional and industry sources. Industry is expected to be briefed on a draft request for proposals later in the day, sources said.

Editor's note: The original version of this entry misspelled the name of the Air Force secretary.

By Marjorie Censer
September 22, 2009 at 5:00 AM

UPDATE: The post below, on analyst Loren Thompson's take on the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles protest, has generated some reader feedback, spurring us to find out more explicitly about Thompson's relationship with BAE Systems. Thompson, chief operating officer of the non-profit Lexington Institute, told us yesterday that BAE is one of the clients of his for-profit consulting firm (his leadership of which is noted in the original entry). However, Thompson insisted the paper was written for the Lexington Institute, and he asserted that the firm's work for BAE played no part in his analysis of the FMTV competition.

The original:

One analyst is predicting the Government Accountability Office will soon overturn the recent award of the Army's Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles contract to Oshkosh.

FMTV competitors Navistar and BAE Systems earlier this month filed protests with the GAO of an August award to Oshkosh worth $280.9 million for 2,568 FMTVs. According to Oshkosh, the order is expected to total 23,000 trucks and trailers. BAE Systems was the incumbent in the competition.

In a Sept. 17 "issue brief," Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute (who also runs a consulting shop) writes that the Army made "fundamental mistakes" by accepting a "wildly unrealistic cost estimate from Oshkosh without making any serious attempt to determine whether it was valid" and by rating the three offerors "equal in terms of risk and capability," even though BAE Systems was the incumbent.

And, Thompson writes, the service rated the offerors equal with regard to past performance, ignoring BAE's relevant past experience.

In combination, these missteps nearly guarantee that the protests lodged by the losing teams will be sustained when the Government Accountability Office rules on them later this year. But the truck award raises more far-reaching questions about the competence of Army source selections, because the errors were so egregious. Consider the issue of cost realism, a central concern in acquisition reform. Despite lack of facilities, workforce and relevant experience, Oshkosh bid 30 percent below what BAE is charging for building the same trucks today. BAE bid below its current asking price too, and but not that low -- even though it already has a production process in place. Army personnel accepted the bids at face value without any effort to independently verify them, and in fact made cost the sole determinant of the award.

Additionally, Thompson writes that capabilities and past performance were supposed to outweigh cost as factors in the competition, and rating Oshkosh as equal in production capability "seems preposterous on its face." In past performance, the Army "ignored a host of factors" in assuming Oshkosh could match BAE, including Oshkosh's high-priority contract to build Mine Resistant Ambush Protected All-Terrain Vehicles.

"What this all adds up to is a procurement disaster in the making, a conclusion GAO analysts should have little difficulty reaching," Thompson concludes.

According to his biography, Thompson, chief operating officer at the Lexington Institute, also runs Source Associates, a "for-profit consultancy."

By Thomas Duffy
September 21, 2009 at 5:00 AM

With Gen. Stanley McChrystal's report to President Obama on Afghanistan dominating the news today, an Army solicitation for an Afghanistan marketing plan -- also issued today -- has caught our eye. The Army is looking for an Afghan company to carry out a media and advertising campaign “to influence the Afghanistan people at all levels (strategic, operational and tactical) and which will directly translate in the reduction of the number of ((improvised explosive devices)) used against the Afghanistan people and coalition forces," the solicitation states.

According to the notice, here's the situation the Afghan people and McChrystal's forces face:

Foreign terrorists, religious extremists, and militant militia continue to use increasingly sophisticated Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) as a weapon of choice against the Afghanistan populace, Afghanistan Security Forces and Coalition Forces – causing casualties among both the civilian and military populaces. As a result, the Coalition Forces are collaborating to produce a comprehensive marketing and information campaign for Regional Commander East RC(E) which will be designed and produced by the contractor chosen for award under this solicitation, and will be in coordination with the strategic information goals of the RC(E).

The Army wants the company chosen to produce 12 conceptual campaigns during a given year. These campaigns -- covering security, nation development and governance issues -- are to use television and radio advertising, billboards or other outside media, and newspaper ads.

The Afghan company will be signed to a one-year contract. At the end of that year, if the marketing campaign is successful, the Afghan people will recognize an atmosphere of security and one in which the Afghan security forces can transition into the lead, the solicitation asserts.

By Christopher J. Castelli
September 21, 2009 at 5:00 AM

John McHugh, the new Army Secretary, was sworn in this morning at a Pentagon ceremony.

The ceremony for the 21st Army secretary just happened to fall on Sept. 21.

Also sworn in was Joseph Westphal, the 30th Army under secretary.

By John Liang
September 21, 2009 at 5:00 AM

A group of activists led by the Union of Concerned Scientists is seeking to get out ahead of President Obama's speech to the United Nations General Assembly and subsequent chairing of the U.N. Security Council this week by beginning an advertising campaign calling for steep reductions to the world's nuclear-weapons arsenal.

Obama will speak to the General Assembly on Sept. 23 and chair a meeting of the Security Council the next day, according to a UCS statement issued today:

Both the president's address and the Security Council session are expected to focus on nuclear weapons policy. The campaign also coincides with an ongoing administration assessment of U.S. nuclear weapons policy, called the Nuclear Posture Review, which will determine U.S. plans for the next several years.

The campaign will feature an advertisement signed by retired Army Brig. Gen. John Adams, former deputy U.S. military representative to NATO; Bishop Howard Hubbard, chairman of the Committee on International Justice and Peace with the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops; Joel Hunter, senior pastor at Northland: A Church Distributed; Leon Lederman, a Nobel laureate in physics and a professor at Illinois Institute of Technology; Barry Levy, former president of the American Public Health Association and an adjunct professor of public health at Tufts University's School of Medicine; and Charleta Tavares, Columbus, OH, City Council member and board chair of the Women's Action for New Directions Education Fund.

The ad is scheduled to appear this week in publications like Congress Daily, The Hill, National Journal, Politico, Roll Call and The Washington Times, according to UCS.

In addition to the print ad, the signatories will send a letter to President Obama and UCS will simultaneously deliver letters from some 11,000 citizens from across the country to the president and other officials involved in the Nuclear Posture Review, according to the statement.

By Thomas Duffy
September 18, 2009 at 5:00 AM

Former FBI Deputy Director Robert Bryant has been selected to be the next National Counterintelligence Executive, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair announced today. In his new job, Bryant will serve as the head of national counterintelligence for the United States government.

In his announcement, Blair said:

The Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive (ONCIX) sets the priorities for counterintelligence collection, investigations, and operations, and conducts in-depth espionage damage assessments. To ensure the effectiveness of these programs, ONCIX also performs periodic reviews of all U.S. Counterintelligence programs, evaluates them against strategic and budgetary goals, and makes fiscal recommendations to the DNI.

In the recently published 2009 National Intelligence Strategy, counterintelligence is elevated for the first time as a mission objective. “Integrate Counterintelligence” is one of six mission objectives, and the strategy calls for a counterintelligence capability that is integrated with all aspects of the intelligence process, both offensively and defensively, to protect our secrets, and to better serve the policymaker and the operator.

During his FBI years, Bryant investigated and prosecuted the spies Aldrich Ames, Earl Pitts and Harold Nicholson. He also was in charge of the investigations following the Oklahoma City bombing and the bombing of Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia. He was most recently the president and chief executive officer of the National Insurance Crime Bureau.

By John Liang
September 18, 2009 at 5:00 AM

China's interest in developing a land-mobile, maneuverable anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) has been gaining increased attention in the open literature in recent months.

"Nobody has ever been able to hit a moving target with a ballistic missile yet," retired Navy Cmdr. Paul Diarra, head of the consulting firm Global Strategies & Transformation, said at a Defense Forum Foundation luncheon on Capitol Hill today.

Diarra wrote a brief article in the May issue of the U.S. Naval Institute's Proceedings magazine (which also had a longer article written by two other authors on the same subject) where he noted that if China does indeed develop such a capability, "((t))he numbers are going to be in China's favor. In a wartime situation, even if every U.S. ((Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense)) interceptor hit and destroyed an inbound-ASBM, naval missile magazines are very limited and cannot be reloaded at sea.

"This is a glaring deficiency for us," Diarra's article continued. "It severely limits our defense and turns high-tech, network warfare into a simple battle of attrition favoring the offense," he warned.

To illustrate his point during his Capitol Hill presentation today, Diarra showed a photo of actor Slim Pickens from the movie "Dr. Strangelove" riding the nuclear bomb at the end of the film. The next picture Diarra showed was what he called a "Slim Pickens" overhead view of anti-ship ballistic missiles bearing down on a U.S. carrier battle group.

"This is what the Chinese are trying to do with their ballistic missiles, which is target our carriers and other capital ships from thousands of miles away," Diarra said.

Such a Chinese capability has "profound consequences" for U.S. Naval and global strategy, he added, especially since the United States is so dependent on unfettered global access and unimpeded naval power.

"We've become so used to this that we take it for granted," Diarra said. "The Chinese are not taking it for granted."

By Marjorie Censer
September 17, 2009 at 5:00 AM

The Senate yesterday voted to confirm John McHugh as Army secretary and Joseph Westphal as under secretary, according to press reports.

McHugh, the former ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, and Westphal appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee at a nomination hearing in late July. The committee favorably reported out their nominations days later.

McHugh succeeds Pete Geren, who has served as Army secretary since July 2007.

Westphal is on leave as a political science professor at the University of Maine. He previously served as chancellor of the University of Maine system and as assistant secretary of the Army for civil works beginning in 1998. In 2001, he briefly served as acting Army secretary.

By Marjorie Censer
September 17, 2009 at 5:00 AM

One analyst is predicting the Government Accountability Office will soon overturn the recent award of the Army's Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles contract to Oshkosh.

FMTV competitors Navistar and BAE Systems earlier this month filed protests with the GAO of an August award to Oshkosh worth $280.9 million for 2,568 FMTVs. According to Oshkosh, the order is expected to total 23,000 trucks and trailers. BAE Systems was the incumbent in the competition.

In a Sept. 17 "issue brief," Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute (who also runs a consulting shop) writes that the Army made "fundamental mistakes" by accepting a "wildly unrealistic cost estimate from Oshkosh without making any serious attempt to determine whether it was valid" and by rating the three offerors "equal in terms of risk and capability," even though BAE Systems was the incumbent.

And, Thompson writes, the service rated the offerors equal with regard to past performance, ignoring BAE's relevant past experience.

In combination, these missteps nearly guarantee that the protests lodged by the losing teams will be sustained when the Government Accountability Office rules on them later this year. But the truck award raises more far-reaching questions about the competence of Army source selections, because the errors were so egregious. Consider the issue of cost realism, a central concern in acquisition reform. Despite lack of facilities, workforce and relevant experience, Oshkosh bid 30 percent below what BAE is charging for building the same trucks today. BAE bid below its current asking price too, and but not that low -- even though it already has a production process in place. Army personnel accepted the bids at face value without any effort to independently verify them, and in fact made cost the sole determinant of the award.

Additionally, Thompson writes that capabilities and past performance were supposed to outweigh cost as factors in the competition, and rating Oshkosh as equal in production capability "seems preposterous on its face." In past performance, the Army "ignored a host of factors" in assuming Oshkosh could match BAE, including Oshkosh's high-priority contract to build Mine Resistant Ambush Protected All-Terrain Vehicles.

"What this all adds up to is a procurement disaster in the making, a conclusion GAO analysts should have little difficulty reaching," Thompson concludes.

According to his biography, Thompson, chief operating officer at the Lexington Institute, also runs Source Associates, a "for-profit consultancy."